While US textile and apparel imports contracted overall, the divergence among supplying regions tells a more compelling story than the aggregate numbers. In H1 2026, India's textile and apparel exports to the US fell 23.3% year-on-year, dropping from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, a loss of $1.25 billion. In the same period, ASEAN exports to the US grew by 4.5%. This sharp contrast signals that a rebalancing of global textile supply chains is underway—and it is far from over.
Divergence Behind the Data
India's share of the US textile and apparel import market shrank from 10.4% to 8.6%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points in just one year. Notably, India's export drop was more than three times the overall decline of US imports. This suggests that India was not merely a victim of a shrinking market, but was actively deprioritized by buyers. When the market contracts, a supplier's performance often reveals its customer loyalty and substitutability—and India appears weak on both fronts.
ASEAN's positive growth is not accidental. A 4.5% increase may seem modest, but against a backdrop of falling demand, it means ASEAN is capturing orders that have shifted from other regions. For buyers, Southeast Asia's appeal lies not only in cost, but also in policy stability and supply-chain predictability. In times of uncertainty, stability itself becomes a competitive advantage.
How Tariff Expectations Rewrite Order Maps
The textile and apparel industry operates with a long lead time of six months to a year. Spring and summer goods entering the US market in H1 2026 had their orders largely finalized between late 2025 and early 2026. This means that the tariff policy environment at that time directly determined how orders were allocated. American brands and buyers, facing uncertainty, tended to assign orders to lower-risk origins, making ASEAN a natural choice.
This kind of policy-driven order shift is preventive in nature—buyers do not wait for tariffs to materialize; they adjust allocations when uncertainty is high. Indian suppliers are not just losing current orders; they are being re-rated by buyers as higher-risk sources. Once such a perception forms, it often takes several quarters of stable performance to reverse.
Supply-Chain Inertia and the Return Barrier
Order shifts, once made, exhibit strong inertia. After buyers have signed contracts, locked production schedules, and arranged logistics, the entire supply chain is set. Even if tariff risks ease later, orders already allocated are unlikely to return quickly. This explains why India cannot quickly recover lost ground even if the policy environment improves.
More fundamentally, India is not just losing orders; it is losing the opportunity for buyers to validate their diversified sourcing strategies. ASEAN producers, by absorbing these orders, have built capacity, channels, and client relationships that are self-reinforcing. For India, improving tariff conditions alone will not suffice. It must close gaps in efficiency, delivery reliability, and compliance to re-enter buyers' core supplier lists.
Lessons for Global Textile Trade
These figures are a wake-up call for all exporters that rely on a single market. US consumer demand, inventory cycles, and tariff policies will continue to shape global order flows, but the shifting shares show that policy risks have a magnifying effect. Over-reliance on one market or one origin leaves you vulnerable to sudden changes.