In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market shrank, but the decline was highly uneven: India's exports to the US fell 23.3% year-on-year, losing $1.25 billion in orders, with market share dropping from 10.4% to 8.6%. Meanwhile, ASEAN achieved a 4.5% increase. This contrast reveals not just a shift in order numbers, but a concentrated re-anchoring of the global textile supply chain under tariff pressure.
Background
According to public trade data from China Customs and the US Department of Commerce, from January to June 2026, India's textile and apparel exports to the US fell from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, a decline more than three times the overall US import drop. This indicates India did not merely follow the market downturn but suffered an additional shock beyond the industry average. During the same period, ASEAN exports to the US grew 4.5%, a striking divergence amid weak overall demand.
Tariff uncertainty is the core trigger for the order loss. The textile and apparel industry has a long lead time: orders for spring and summer items entering the US in the first half are typically finalized between the end of the previous year and the beginning of the current year. During that decision window, Indian suppliers faced higher tariff risks, prompting US brands and buyers to proactively reduce order allocations from India and shift capacity to ASEAN countries with more stable policy environments. This explains why India's decline far exceeded the market average while ASEAN grew against the trend.
Industrial Impact
Order flows have strong inertia, a variable often underestimated in trade chains. Once buyers finalize sourcing contracts, lock in production schedules, and confirm shipping logistics, the entire supply chain arrangement is fixed. Even if tariff risks ease later, allocated orders are unlikely to return to India in the short term. This means the impact of the $1.25 billion loss will persist for several quarters, not just as a one-time shock.
For India's textile industry, this exposes the fragility of its export structure: over-reliance on a single market and a lack of buffers against policy fluctuations. ASEAN's rise is not accidental; its stable policy expectations and gradually improving industrial chain support make it a natural choice for risk-averse buyers. For global sourcing professionals, the data signals that supply chain stability is as important as cost—sometimes even more so.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Re-evaluate supplier portfolios, incorporating policy stability as a core criterion to avoid single-source risk. - Assess ASEAN capacity sustainability, verifying quality, lead times, and compliance capabilities beyond price advantages. - Implement rolling order mechanisms to shorten decision cycles and respond quickly to external variables like tariffs.
For Exporters - Diversify market presence to reduce dependence on any single country or region, prioritizing politically stable areas. - Enhance supply chain predictability through digital tools for better order tracking transparency and customer trust. - Monitor tariff policy developments closely, establish early warning systems, and adjust pricing and capacity allocation before order windows.
The H1 2026 data is both a warning and a lesson: in the ongoing reshaping of global textile trade, flexibility and diversification are the long-term keys to withstanding external shocks. Whether for producing countries or traders, proactively adapting to supply chain redistribution is essential to stay competitive in the next round of order competition.