In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market contracted, but India emerged as the biggest loser: exports to the US plunged 23.3% year-on-year, from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, evaporating $1.25 billion in orders. This decline was more than three times the overall US import drop, causing India's market share to slide from 10.4% to 8.6%. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports to the US grew 4.5%, signaling a quiet redistribution of global textile orders.
Background
Behind these figures lies the unique pre-ordering cycle of the textile and apparel industry. Spring and summer styles entering the US market in the first half of the year are typically sourced and ordered between late the previous year and early the current year. The decision window for H1 2026 orders coincided with a period of high tariff uncertainty. Indian suppliers faced persistent threats of additional tariffs, prompting US brands and buyers to proactively reduce their India allocation and shift orders to ASEAN countries with more stable policy environments.
Tariff uncertainty is not the only variable. Weakening US import demand means buyers, while shrinking their total basket, prefer to allocate limited orders to suppliers with higher predictability. India's vulnerability in this adjustment lies in its over-reliance on the US market and lagging policy response. In contrast, ASEAN countries, with relatively stable trade frameworks and flexible production scheduling, absorbed some shifted orders and achieved growth.
Industry Impact
Order flows exhibit strong supply chain inertia, the most notable aspect of this shift. Once buyers finalize sourcing contracts, lock production schedules, and arrange shipping logistics, the entire supply chain is set. Even if tariff risks ease later, allocated orders are unlikely to return to India quickly, potentially affecting several quarters. India is not only losing $1.25 billion now but also future production slots.
For global textile traders, these data offer two key insights. First, the risk of single-market dependence is amplified. India's sharp volatility warns suppliers highly dependent on one country to accelerate customer diversification. Second, policy stability has become a core factor in purchasing decisions. Beyond cost, supply chain predictability and tariff certainty directly determine order allocation. ASEAN's rise is not accidental but a result of long-term policy stability and accumulated industrial capabilities.