In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import landscape saw notable shifts: India's exports to the US fell from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion year-on-year, a sharp decline of 23.3%, equivalent to losing $1.25 billion in orders. Meanwhile, the overall US import market contracted, but India's drop was more than three times the overall decline, while ASEAN exports to the US grew 4.5% against the trend. This divergence signals an accelerating redistribution in the global textile supply chain, driven by tariff uncertainty and supply chain inertia.
Background
India's share of the US textile and apparel import market slipped from 10.4% to 8.6%, a loss of 1.8 percentage points. This change is not isolated but a direct consequence of tariff policy volatility during the ordering cycle from late 2025 to early 2026. The textile and apparel industry operates with a long lead time: orders for spring/summer goods arriving in the US in the first half are typically finalized in the previous year-end. During that window, Indian suppliers faced elevated tariff risks, prompting US buyers to reduce their allocation to Indian sources.
Notably, ASEAN's 4.5% export growth is not coincidental. While India grappled with tariff pressure, Southeast Asian countries, with relatively stable policy environments and mature production capacity, became the preferred alternative for buyers. This shift is not merely a short-term hedge but a structural adjustment based on long-term supply chain stability considerations.
Industrial Impact
Order shifts exhibit strong supply chain inertia, a critical lesson from this event. Once buyers finalize sourcing contracts, lock production schedules, and arrange logistics, the entire supply chain is set. Even if tariff risks ease later, allocated orders are unlikely to return in the short term. This means India may lose not only the $1.25 billion in H1 2026 orders but also sustained market share in the coming quarters.
For India's textile industry, this exposes its vulnerability to single-market dependence and high policy sensitivity. In US buyers' decision-making, cost is no longer the sole factor; policy stability and supply chain predictability are gaining weight. Tariff volatility has amplified India's export uncertainty, while ASEAN producers have strengthened their capacity and channel advantages, creating new competitive barriers.
For Chinese textile trading companies, these figures serve as a warning: overseas market policy risks cannot be ignored, and over-reliance on a single market can lead to dramatic order fluctuations. However, this also implies a reshuffling of global order flows, and companies with diversified layouts and agile response capabilities can seize new opportunities during the adjustment.