In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market witnessed a clear divergence: India's exports to the US fell 23.3% year-on-year, from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, losing $1.25 billion in orders; meanwhile, ASEAN achieved 4.5% growth. This contrast far exceeds the overall market decline, indicating that India's share is being systematically eroded by Southeast Asian suppliers, and the global textile supply chain rebalancing has shifted from trend to reality.
Structural Imbalance Behind the Data
India's share in US textile and apparel imports dropped from 10.4% to 8.6% in a year, a contraction of 1.8 percentage points. Notably, the overall US import decline was only single-digit, while India's drop was more than three times the market average. This is not simply market shrinkage but a deterioration in competitive position. When the overall market contracts, suppliers usually decline in tandem, but India's excess decline indicates that buyers are actively adjusting sourcing structures rather than passively absorbing weak demand.
ASEAN's counter-trend growth further confirms this. Although 4.5% growth is modest, it stands out in a declining market, suggesting that US buyers are shifting orders from India to Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, and other Southeast Asian countries. This shift is not a temporary substitution but a strategic move based on long-term cost, tariff, and supply chain stability considerations.
Tariff Uncertainty: Catalyst for Order Loss
The textile and apparel industry has a strong lead-time ordering cycle. Spring/summer orders shipped in the first half are typically finalized between the end of the previous year and early this year. During this period, India faced tariff policy uncertainties, prompting US brands and buyers to reduce their India sourcing allocation and turn to ASEAN countries with more predictable policy environments. Tariff uncertainty is not just a price issue but a supply chain predictability issue; buyers need to lock in costs, and policy swings directly undermine that ability.
Notably, order shifts have inertia. Once buyers complete contracting, production scheduling, and logistics planning, the supply chain becomes solidified. Even if tariff pressures ease later, allocated orders are unlikely to return quickly. This means India's loss is not limited to H1 orders but may affect exports for the next two to three quarters, as buyers' reassessment cycles typically take more than six months.
Industry Impact: Who Gains, Who Faces Challenges
For ASEAN textile clusters, this shift brings substantial capacity expansion opportunities. Factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and others may see fuller order books, but they must also watch for infrastructure and labor bottlenecks that could undermine their reliability as alternative sources.
For India's textile industry, this is not just a short-term order loss but a revelation of supply chain vulnerability—over-reliance on a single market and lack of buffers to handle policy fluctuations. India needs to consider how to maintain buyer confidence during tariff uncertainty, such as diversifying markets or enhancing non-price competitiveness.
For Chinese textile trading companies, this data offers an important reference: the global sourcing landscape is becoming multipolar, and single-market dependency risks are intensifying. At the same time, ASEAN's rise means more competition, but China's advantages in high-end fabrics and quick-response supply chains remain irreplaceable. The key is to strengthen these differentiating capabilities.