While the US textile and apparel import market contracted, sourcing patterns showed a rare divergence: India's exports plunged 23.3% year-on-year, whereas ASEAN exports grew 4.5%. This shift reflects the deep impact of tariff uncertainty on global supply chains, with consequences far beyond a single order transfer.
India's Decline: Fragility Exposed
In H1 2026, India's textile and apparel exports to the US fell from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, losing $1.25 billion in orders. More concerning, this decline was over three times the overall US import drop, revealing India's vulnerability during market downturns. Its US market share slipped from 10.4% to 8.6%, a 1.8 percentage point loss. This suggests that India's dependence on the US market has not diminished, making it a disproportionate casualty in a shrinking environment. For buyers, the declining share signals that India's reliability as a sourcing destination is being reassessed.
ASEAN's Gain: The Power of Supply Chain Inertia
In contrast, ASEAN's textile and apparel exports to the US grew 4.5%. This growth stems from the long lead times in apparel sourcing: orders for spring/summer 2026 were largely placed in late 2025 and early 2026. During that period, Indian suppliers were overshadowed by tariff policy uncertainty, prompting US brands and buyers to shift order allocation to ASEAN countries with more stable policy environments. Once orders are placed, they carry strong supply chain inertia—production schedules, logistics plans, and contracts are locked in, making it difficult for orders to return even if tariff pressures ease. This means ASEAN has secured not just current orders but also capacity and channel advantages for future quarters.
Industry Impact: The Risk of Single-Market Dependence
This data serves as a clear warning for global textile traders: policy risks are contagious and cumulative. India's issue is not cost competitiveness but that policy uncertainty amplified its supply risk, causing buyers to downgrade its priority. ASEAN's growth, meanwhile, stems not from a sudden cost edge but from the premium placed on certainty. For exporters relying heavily on one market, India's loss is a case study: when policy changes hit, those without alternative markets suffer the most. Diversification and supply chain resilience become essential for stability.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Include policy stability in supplier evaluation and build a backup sourcing list to hedge against tariff risks, avoiding disruptions from single-country policy shifts. - Assess ASEAN's capacity and quality, but also consider delivery times and logistics costs to avoid sacrificing speed.
For Exporters - Review your export market structure; if over-reliant on one country, actively expand into emerging markets or free trade agreement partners. - Incorporate tariff change clauses in quotes and contracts, sharing policy risks with clients to enhance predictability.
Outlook
US consumption, inventory cycles, and tariff policies remain key variables for order flows. For India, regaining market share requires more than tariff improvements; it must confront ASEAN's established capacity and channels. For global practitioners, this shift underscores that supply chain competition is essentially a competition for certainty. Those who offer stable policy environments and reliable delivery will lead in a volatile landscape.