In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market witnessed a clear reshuffling of sourcing origins: India's exports to the US plummeted 23.3% year-on-year, from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, a direct loss of $1.25 billion in orders. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports grew 4.5%. These two sets of data together signal that American buyers are voting with their orders, and supply chain resilience is becoming more decisive than pure cost advantage.
Signals Behind the Data
India's market share in the US dropped from 10.4% to 8.6%, a contraction of 1.8 percentage points, while the overall US import market only shrank slightly. India's decline was more than three times the overall market contraction, indicating a structural loss of orders rather than cyclical fluctuations. For sourcing managers, the risk premium of Indian origin is rising; even if price quotes are attractive, tariff uncertainty makes brands inclined to diversify risk.
ASEAN's growth is not accidental. From yarn, fabric to garments, Southeast Asian countries have formed relatively complete industrial chains with more stable policy environments. The 4.5% growth may not be high, but against the backdrop of weak overall demand, this positive growth clearly shows that US buyers' shift in sourcing origins has entered the execution stage, not just speculation.
How Tariff Uncertainty Transmits to Orders
The textile and apparel industry has a strong lead-time ordering cycle. Spring/summer products sold in the first half of the year usually have suppliers locked in from late last year to early this year. During the decision-making period for H1 2026 orders, Indian suppliers faced higher tariff risk expectations, prompting US brands and importers to actively reduce India's allocation. Tariff uncertainty not only affects current profits but also disrupts suppliers' capacity planning and quotation systems.
This transmission is amplified step by step: brands reduce orders, Indian factory utilization rates drop, and upstream yarn and fabric enterprises face production slowdowns. In contrast, ASEAN suppliers gain a premium due to policy predictability, sometimes winning orders even with slightly higher quotes. For Indian textile clusters like Tirupur and Surat, the loss is not just orders but also the long-established collaboration rhythm with US clients.
Supply Chain Inertia and Difficulty of Order Return
Order migration has strong inertia. Once buyers complete contracting, production scheduling, and logistics locking, the entire chain forms a path dependency. Even if tariff pressure eases later, allocated orders are unlikely to return in the short term. This means India's lost share will be hard to recover in the next two to three quarters, and ASEAN's capacity expansion and customer relationship consolidation will further solidify this pattern.
On a deeper level, this exposes South Asian origins' weaknesses in non-cost dimensions: policy stability, delivery predictability, and compliance transparency. These factors are gaining weight in US buyers' supplier selection. For global textile trading companies, the risk of single-market dependence is once again validated. Diversification is no longer just a slogan but a realistic choice to withstand volatility.