In the first half of 2026, US textile and apparel imports contracted overall, but India's exports to the US fell 23.3% year-on-year—more than triple the overall decline—dropping from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports to the US grew 4.5% against the trend. This stark contrast exposes how tariff policy risks can disrupt supply chains.
Background
The overall decline in US textile imports is a fact, but India's burden far exceeds the industry average. According to public data from China Customs and the US Department of Commerce, India's share of the US import market shrank from 10.4% to 8.6%, losing $1.25 billion in orders. This is not a simple cyclical fluctuation but a sign of structural adjustment.
The timing of the order loss is telling. Spring and summer apparel exported in the first half of the year is typically ordered six months earlier, around late 2025 to early 2026. At that time, tariff uncertainty for Indian suppliers peaked, prompting US buyers to reduce Indian sourcing and shift orders to ASEAN countries with more stable policy environments. Current data reflects expectations from half a year ago, not immediate changes.
Industry Impact
Supply chain inertia makes order transfers persistent. Once buyers finalize sourcing, lock in production schedules, and arrange logistics, the entire supply chain is set. Even if tariff pressure eases, allocated orders are unlikely to return quickly. For India, this loss is not just short-term; it exposes a structural weakness of over-reliance on a single market.
For ASEAN, the modest 4.5% growth signifies substantive gains in capacity, channels, and customer relationships. Once US buyers adjust their supplier lists, switching costs are high. This inertia will last for several quarters and may reshape Asia's textile export landscape.
For global textile traders, this data offers a warning: overseas policy risks cannot be ignored. Tariff volatility amplifies supply-side uncertainty, and buyers are now weighing cost alongside supply chain resilience.