The US textile and apparel import market contracted in the first half of 2026, yet India and ASEAN diverged sharply within the same trade data. India's exports to the US fell 23.3% year-on-year, from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion, losing $1.25 billion in orders, while ASEAN exports grew 4.5%.
Structural divergence in the data
India's share of US textile imports dropped from 10.4% to 8.6%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points in just one year. This drop is more than three times the overall US import decline, indicating that India is not merely following the market downturn but losing relative competitiveness. ASEAN's counter-trend growth suggests buyers are actively reallocating sourcing, not simply reducing volumes.
Textile and apparel orders have a long lead time: spring/summer goods entering the US market in H1 are typically ordered in the previous year's Q4 or early Q1. Thus, India's H1 2026 export figures reflect tariff expectations from late 2025 to early 2026. During that window, Indian suppliers faced persistent tariff uncertainty, prompting US brands and buyers to reduce India's share in their sourcing allocations.
Tariff uncertainty and supply chain inertia
Tariff uncertainty is the core trigger for order losses, but not the only factor. Textile supply chains exhibit strong inertia: once buyers finalize contracts, lock production schedules, and arrange logistics, the chain is set. Even if tariff risks ease later, transferred orders are unlikely to return to India quickly, and the impact can persist for several quarters.
A deeper issue is that South Asian producers' weaknesses in policy stability and supply chain predictability have been amplified. US buyers no longer consider cost alone; policy certainty, delivery reliability, and compliance risk weigh heavily. India's tariff volatility hits buyers' most sensitive nerve, while ASEAN's relatively stable policy environment serves as a "safe haven" for order shifts.
Implications for global textile trade
This data offers three key insights for global textile traders. First, the risk of single-market dependence is becoming evident, as India's export volatility demonstrates. Second, production relocation is not a temporary adjustment but a path-dependent, long-term process; ASEAN's capacity and channel advantages will be hard to reverse. Third, US terminal consumption, inventory cycles, and tariff policies remain core variables for future order flows, and any single factor could trigger chain reactions.
For Chinese textile enterprises, the India-ASEAN shift is not irrelevant. China, as the world's largest textile exporter, faces similar policy uncertainty in the US market. Maintaining cost advantages while enhancing supply chain resilience and predictability is more important than chasing short-term orders.