In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import market witnessed a stark divergence: India's exports to the US plunged 23.3%, losing $1.25 billion in orders, while ASEAN achieved a 4.5% growth. This contrast not only reflects single-market volatility but also signals a global supply chain reshuffling driven by policy risks.
The Shift Behind the Numbers
Public data from China Customs and India's Ministry of Commerce show that from January to June 2026, India's textile and apparel exports to the US fell to $4.10 billion from $5.35 billion a year earlier, a decline three times the overall import drop. Consequently, India's US market share slipped from 10.4% to 8.6%, losing 1.8 percentage points in a year.
Meanwhile, ASEAN's exports to the US rose despite the overall contraction, indicating that buyers are reallocating sourcing weights. For Southeast Asian factories, this is not just a short-term boon but a chance to solidify client relationships for years.
How Tariff Uncertainty Rewrites Order Maps
The textile industry operates with a long lead time; spring/summer goods are typically ordered late in the previous year. Orders delivered in H1 2026 were decided during a period of volatile Indian tariff policies, prompting US brands and importers to cut India's share and shift to ASEAN suppliers with more stable policy environments.
This risk-averse behavior is systemic, not incidental. For Indian exporters, losing these orders means losing priority in buyers' supplier lists. Once clients complete supplier qualification, production trials, and logistics integration, switching back is costly.
Order Inertia: Why Quick Recovery is Unlikely
Trade orders exhibit strong path dependence. After buyers sign long-term contracts with ASEAN factories, lock in capacity, and arrange shipping, the supply chain is fixed. Even if tariff pressures ease later, shifted orders will not return quickly. Industry analysts suggest this inertia could last two to three quarters or longer.
For India's textile sector, this exposes its structural over-reliance on a single market. Cost advantage alone is no longer decisive; policy predictability and supply chain resilience are now key. For global traders, this data serves as a wake-up call: geopolitical and tariff fluctuations can redraw order flows at any time, making diversification imperative.