In the first half of 2026, the US textile and apparel import landscape saw a notable shift in market share. India's exports to the US dropped from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion year-on-year, a 23.3% decline, equivalent to losing $1.25 billion in orders. What stands out is that this decline is more than three times the overall US import contraction, indicating that India was not merely dragged down by the shrinking market but actively deprioritized by buyers. During the same period, ASEAN exports to the US grew by 4.5%, and the contrasting trends signal a clear rebalancing in the global textile supply chain.
Background
India's market share in the US fell from 10.4% to 8.6%, a 1.8-percentage-point drop that may seem small but matters in a shrinking market. US buyers allocate orders based on a simple logic: when total volume declines, they prioritize suppliers with stable policy environments and reliable delivery. The orders for H1 2026 were placed between late 2025 and early 2026, a period when tariff uncertainty was high, prompting brands to shift orders to ASEAN, where policies were clearer.
This shift is not temporary. Textile and apparel orders have a lead time of several months, and once buyers sign contracts and lock in production schedules and logistics, reversing the flow is difficult. Even if tariff risks ease later, orders are unlikely to return to India quickly. ASEAN is not just taking a 4.5% increase; it is absorbing the production capacity and channel relationships that India lost, and this inertia will affect trade flows for the next two to three quarters.
Industry Impact
For India's textile industry, the order loss reveals a deeper issue: beyond cost, policy stability and supply-chain predictability have become core factors in US buyers' decisions. Tariff volatility amplifies India's risk, while ASEAN, with its stable trade environment and mature production capacity, is becoming the 'safe choice.' This perception is self-reinforcing—the more buyers rely on ASEAN, the more crowded its order books become, raising the barrier for India's return.
For Chinese textile exporters, this data serves as a warning. The contraction and regional shift in the US market are not isolated events but a microcosm of global supply-chain fragmentation. Over-reliance on a single market means weak resilience; when policy winds change, order losses can outpace expectations. At the same time, ASEAN's rise adds competitive pressure, forcing Chinese suppliers to build differentiation in cost, lead time, and compliance rather than competing solely on price.
From a broader perspective, the US import downturn combined with regional share redistribution indicates that global textile trade is entering a period of 'stock competition.' Buyers are more inclined to diversify orders across multiple origins to hedge risks, requiring exporters to develop multi-market and multi-category capabilities. For companies already investing in Southeast Asian capacity, close attention should be paid to local policies, regulations, and infrastructure to avoid repeating the mistake of single-market dependence.