Against the backdrop of a shrinking US textile and apparel import market, India's export decline to the US is three times deeper than the overall market contraction, a contrast that should prompt global textile traders to rethink supply chain strategies. In H1 2026, India's textile and apparel exports to the US fell from $5.35 billion to $4.10 billion year-on-year, a 23.3% drop, directly losing $1.25 billion in orders. Meanwhile, overall US imports declined only in single digits, while ASEAN exports grew 4.5%.
Background
Tariff uncertainty is the core trigger for this round of order losses. The textile and apparel industry has a strong lead-time cycle: orders for spring/summer collections hitting the US market in H1 are typically placed between late the previous year and early the current year. During the order placement period for H1 2026, Indian suppliers faced persistent tariff volatility, prompting US brands and buyers to reduce order allocations from India and shift some capacity to ASEAN countries with more stable policy environments.
In terms of market share, India's share of US textile and apparel imports fell from 10.4% to 8.6%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points. This shift is not isolated but reflects a systematic change in buyer sourcing strategies—beyond cost, policy stability and supply chain predictability have become equally important. India's export fragility is exposed in this adjustment, with its decline far exceeding the industry average, indicating an over-reliance on a single market.
Industry Impact
Order flows have strong supply chain inertia; even if tariff pressures ease later, allocated orders are unlikely to return to India quickly. Once buyers finalize sourcing contracts, lock in production schedules, and arrange shipping logistics, the entire supply chain is fixed, and the impact of order shifts will persist for several quarters. This means India's textile industry faces not just short-term order losses but long-term competitive pressure from ASEAN's capacity and channel advantages.
For global textile traders, this data offers an important lesson: overseas market policy risks cannot be ignored, and over-dependence on a single market easily leads to drastic order fluctuations. ASEAN's growth is not accidental but results from its accumulated capacity, policy stability, and supply chain resilience. US final demand, inventory cycles, and tariff policies remain core variables influencing global order flows, and the redistribution of textile supply chains is expected to deepen.