International oil prices have climbed again under geopolitical pressure, with Brent crude briefly approaching $89 per barrel. For the textile industry, this is not just a macro narrative—it directly raises the cost of chemical fiber raw materials such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester filament. When oil supply faces a real gap, textile companies must recalibrate their procurement logic and inventory strategies.
Event Background
The sharp decline in the Strait of Hormuz's transit capacity has become the core variable in the current commodity market fluctuations. According to industry public data, the strait's transit volume has only recovered to 10%-15% of pre-conflict levels, a significant discrepancy from the 45% claimed by the U.S. Middle East crude oil loading volumes have dropped sharply from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels, with a daily supply gap of 8.3 million barrels. This gap has transformed from a market risk premium into a real logistics bottleneck, meaning Asian chemical fiber capacity relying on Middle Eastern crude will face tighter raw material supply.
Meanwhile, global crude oil inventories are at five-year lows. U.S. commercial crude inventories surged by 17.423 million barrels in a single week, the largest increase in three and a half years, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels. Low inventories amplify price volatility, and any supply-side disruption can trigger violent reactions in the futures market. For textile companies, this means raw material cost fluctuations will become more frequent and unpredictable.
Industry Impact
High oil prices directly push up costs across the chemical fiber chain. PTA and ethylene glycol, the main raw materials for polyester, are highly correlated with international oil prices. When Brent crude trades above $85, the processing margins of polyester plants are significantly compressed, and some small and medium-sized plants may be forced to cut production or schedule early maintenance. Historical experience shows that for every 10% rise in raw material costs, polyester filament prices typically follow with a 5%-8% increase, but the transmission to end fabric prices is often lagging and limited, squeezing the profits of midstream weaving enterprises.
Demand-side headwinds are also accumulating. OPEC and the IEA have successively downgraded their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026. The U.S. summer driving season is coming to an end, and refinery utilization rates are expected to decline in September-October, reducing the supply of naphtha and PX, which in turn affects spot prices of chemical fiber raw materials. For textile foreign trade companies, overseas orders typically weaken in the fourth quarter, and combined with high raw material costs, both order-taking willingness and profit margins face challenges.
Geopolitical risks have also changed procurement rhythms. The previous practice of just-in-time purchasing with low inventory levels is now riskier—if the Middle East situation escalates again, raw material prices could spike instantly, and conventional contract pricing often lags behind spot markets. This means companies need to find a more flexible balance between hedging and spot purchases.