Every $10 per barrel rise in crude oil adds roughly 400 yuan per ton to PTA production costs, with ethylene glycol costs moving in tandem. With Strait of Hormuz traffic at only 10-15% of pre-conflict levels, Middle East crude loadings have fallen from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million, turning an 8.3 million barrel daily supply gap from a risk premium into a real logistics bottleneck. Brent crude opened near $89 per barrel. For the chemical fiber chain, this is not a fleeting sentiment spike but a structural shift in the cost curve.
Event Background
The escalation of US-Iran tensions is the direct trigger. Iranian military leaders have publicly barred US forces from the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz, and introduced a bounty policy, deepening the standoff. Actual loading data contradicts the US-claimed 45% recovery rate, indicating that logistics restoration is far from complete. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to strike each other's ports, refineries, and military infrastructure, amplifying supply-side uncertainty.
US political shifts also weigh on energy markets. Trump ordered a reduction in US-South Korea joint military exercises and revealed a request for Seoul to cooperate on Iran's denuclearization, which was rejected. This has slightly eased Northeast Asian geopolitical tensions. These factors together create a market structure where geopolitics sets the upside and supply-demand fundamentals underpin the downside.
Industry Impact
For textile upstream sectors, high crude prices directly raise costs for naphtha, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. Global crude and refined product inventories are at five-year lows, with US commercial crude stocks surging by 17.423 million barrels in a single week and strategic reserves falling below 300 million barrels, leaving limited buffer. Low inventories support prices, but demand-side headwinds are emerging—OPEC and IEA have both cut 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts, the US summer driving season is ending, and refinery runs will decline in September-October, narrowing the supply gap in Q4.
This suggests chemical fiber costs may ease in Q4. For fabric and apparel companies, late Q3 to early Q4 could be a relatively favorable procurement window; however, if geopolitical talks progress, oil prices could fall faster than expected, making large early stockpiles risky.