At 8.0 CNY per kilogram—this is the internal forecast by some southern Xinjiang ginning mills for the 2026/27 hand-picked cotton opening price, notably higher than last year. Yet, actual quilt cotton orders remain scarce and fragmented, with most contracts small in volume. The gap between price expectations and order reality is becoming the first warning signal for the new cotton year.
Background
Since mid-August, small quantities of hand-picked cotton have been harvested and sold in Hotan, Kashgar, and Kezhou. These are mainly pre-summer flowers and some cotton from dry or early-senescent fields. Due to small volumes and high moisture, quality is generally average or below. Farmers often sell to brokers, pre-sell to ginning mills (only inspected and weighed, not priced), or store at home until enough accumulates. This cautious approach reflects farmers' wait-and-see attitude on prices.
Some ginning mills in Kashgar and Aksu, which have received quilt cotton (civil use) orders, plan to start trial purchases in late August, aiming to deliver between late September and mid-October. Customers are mainly from Chongqing, Zhejiang, Henan, and Hubei. However, mills in Bachu and Maralbishi report fewer pre-purchase orders this year, and contract volumes are generally small. This indicates that quilt cotton demand has not surged; the opening price support comes more from cost and supply expectations.
Industry Impact
The hand-picked cotton opening price has always been a key reference for machine-picked cotton pricing. If the 8.0 CNY/kg expectation materializes, it will directly raise the cost center of new-year seed cotton purchases, subsequently transmitting to lint prices. For downstream spinning mills, this means raw material costs are likely higher than last year, potentially narrowing profit margins. Especially for small and medium enterprises, cost pressure will force them to optimize procurement pace or lock in forward resources earlier.
Meanwhile, the uneven quilt cotton orders deserve attention. Few and scattered orders indicate that civil cotton demand has not yet seen a scale recovery, more of a rigid restocking. Mills' commitment to deliver per contract ensures cash flow but limits their flexibility to hoard cotton for price gains. For farmers, the current pre-summer flowers are of average quality; selling hastily may not fetch good prices, while waiting for the machine-picked cotton peak carries price fluctuation risks.
Regionally, the harvest progress and opening price of southern Xinjiang hand-picked cotton will directly affect the pricing expectations of northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton. If hand-picked cotton opens high, machine-picked cotton is likely to follow; otherwise, it may dampen overall purchasing enthusiasm. Therefore, the trial purchases from late August to early September will be a key window to observe the new cotton market trend.