July exports hit $28.79 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year—the strongest monthly performance in 2026. But beneath the headline growth, structural divergences demand attention: garments are surging while fabrics lag, the US market is propping up growth alone, and upstream orders are delayed. These issues matter more than the growth rate itself.
Hot and Cold in the Data
In dollar terms, July textile exports reached $12.35 billion, up 6.4% year-on-year but down 8.7% month-on-month; apparel exports hit $16.45 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year and 4.4% month-on-month. Both currency measures show the same pattern: overseas buyers are prioritizing finished garments, while intermediate products like fabric and yarn are being postponed.
Cumulative data confirm this rhythm: from January to July, textile and apparel exports totaled $174.75 billion, up 2.4%, with textiles up 3.9% but apparel only up 0.9%. In the long run, upstream raw material chains are more stable, but short-term orders are being led by garments, meaning profit recovery will not be synchronized across the chain.
In RMB terms, cumulative exports fell 1.5% to 1.208 trillion yuan, with apparel down 2.9%. The divergence between dollar and RMB figures, coupled with exchange rate fluctuations, reminds companies that actual revenue improvements may be weaker than dollar data suggest.
US Market Alone Propping Up Growth
The core driver of this rebound is concentrated restocking by European and American brands after destocking, especially in the US. In the first half, exports to the US grew 12.5% year-on-year—the only core market with high growth. Exports to the EU were flat, while demand from ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea continued to weaken.
The strong US performance reflects China's complete supply chain and quick-response capabilities, which Southeast Asia cannot easily replace. However, increased reliance on a single market means any fluctuation in US consumer demand or trade policy will directly pressure overall exports. This structural risk deserves attention.
Time Lag in Upstream-Downstream Transmission
Currently, overseas clients are consuming their own fabric inventories, leading to limited order growth for weaving and dyeing mills. But as autumn/winter garments enter mass production, a second round of fabric restocking is expected around September. Upstream companies need to wait patiently for transmission while proactively seeking supporting orders from domestic garment exporters to offset the gap from overseas purchasing slowdowns.