In July 2026, China's cotton yarn imports fell by 10,000 tons month-on-month to 160,000 tons, yet still surged 53.9% year-on-year. Customs data show that Jan-Jul cumulative imports reached 1.21 million tons, up 56%, while the 2025/26 season (Sep 2025-Jul 2026) totaled 1.8 million tons, up 40.6%. These figures suggest the high-growth cycle is not over, but momentum is cooling.
Data Breakdown: Signs of Slowing Growth
The 5.9% month-on-month dip is within normal fluctuation, but the cumulative growth rate has slightly narrowed from the first half, and the seasonal pace (40.6%) is well below the current year's 56%. For buyers, this indicates a narrowing window for relying on imported yarn, with arrivals likely to ease further.
The 53.9% year-on-year jump is amplified by a low base (about 104,000 tons last July). The real signal is the sequential decline, which often corresponds to softer downstream orders or port inventory buildup. Mills should watch August data for confirmation of a turning point.
Industry Impact: Transmission and Bargaining
Imported yarn mainly flows to coastal weaving hubs like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. A monthly drop supports domestic yarn prices by reducing cheap import pressure. However, for knitters and weavers dependent on foreign yarn, it may raise costs, especially for high-count and combed varieties.
Annual imports of 1.8 million tons are near 2021 highs, reflecting deep reliance driven by a persistent price gap of 200-500 yuan per ton in some specs. Fluctuations in international cotton prices and RMB exchange rates could narrow this gap, affecting import appetite. Foreign trade firms must monitor currency and shipping schedules to avoid supply disruptions.