A single-day jump of 190 yuan/ton pushed polyester staple fiber (PSF) spot prices in Jiangsu to 8,020 yuan/ton, with the mainstream spot range at 8,000-8,100 yuan/ton. Behind this number is a double contraction on both the cost and supply sides, leaving downstream buyers in a rare passive position this year.
Event Background: Double Squeeze from Cost and Supply
The direct driver of this price increase is the firm cost support from tightening raw material supply. Upstream raw material supply is tight, and prices are strengthening, significantly raising the cost line for PSF plants. Meanwhile, PSF plants are facing severe losses and have to continue cutting production and reducing contract volumes, shrinking market supply. With reduced supply and high costs, spot prices naturally rise.
It is worth noting that the current spot price range is 8,000-8,100 yuan/ton, while lower-priced transactions are at 7,850-7,900 yuan/ton. The widening gap indicates growing market divergence. Some mills are quoting firmly, but downstream acceptance is limited, and low-priced goods still see some transactions, reflecting that demand has not picked up simultaneously. The current uptrend is more cost-push than demand-pull.
Industry Impact: Game Between Loss-Making Cuts and Price Expectations
The persistent losses of PSF plants are key to understanding this round of price movement. With high costs and product prices unable to fully cover costs, plants choose to cut production and reduce contracts, which is essentially a self-initiated supply contraction. Once this contraction becomes a trend, it will in turn support prices, but it also means lower industry operating rates, reducing demand for upstream raw materials, forming a dynamic balance.
For downstream buyers, the current price level above 8,000 yuan/ton is already at a relatively high point this year. If raw material supply tightness persists, PSF prices may still have room to rise; conversely, if production cuts lead to negative demand feedback, prices may correct. Buyers need to closely monitor raw material inventory changes and plant operating rates to judge the sustainability of the price trend.
For foreign trade companies, price fluctuations in RMB directly affect export quotations. Rising PSF prices mean higher export costs, and with overseas demand not yet clearly recovering, price increases may weaken price competitiveness. Companies need to balance locking in orders and locking in raw material costs to avoid profit erosion from raw material price volatility.