On August 28, the benchmark price of nylon DTY in China settled at 16,740 CNY per ton, up 3.85% from the beginning of the month and 0.97% higher day-on-day. This level sits exactly at the midpoint of the past year's trading range, neither near the low of 13,560 nor the high of 18,960. The mid-range positioning underscores a delicate balance between upstream costs and downstream demand in the man-made fiber chain.
Drivers Behind the Upward Price Drift
The month saw a cumulative increase of 620 CNY per ton from the initial 16,120, a moderate yet clear upward trend. Public industry data shows the annual average over the past year was 15,284.75 CNY, meaning the current price is about 9.5% above that average, signaling a departure from the low-price zone. Two key factors are driving this shift: rising costs of raw materials like caprolactam and nylon chips, and a wave of restocking by downstream weaving mills.
Notably, the current price remains 2,220 CNY below the yearly peak but 3,180 CNY above the trough, effectively breaching the median value of 16,260. This 'above-mid' stance gives sellers stronger bargaining power, yet it does not indicate a full-blown bull market. For buyers, locking in prices now requires weighing cost support against potential downside risks.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Transmission Effects
Major consumption hubs for nylon DTY include Changle in Fujian, Shaoxing in Zhejiang, and Shengze in Jiangsu, where circular knitting and warp knitting clusters operate at around 70% capacity during the autumn/winter fabric preparation window. This provides solid demand support. However, the sustainability of end-use garment orders remains questionable—overseas retail destocking is not fully complete, and domestic demand, though improving, has limited elasticity.
On the upstream side, caprolactam prices fluctuate with pure benzene, offering moderate cost support. But if crude oil prices retreat, cost easing could quickly transmit to nylon products. Downstream, weavers are becoming less tolerant of high-priced raw materials, with some switching to recycled nylon or adjusting product mixes. This tug-of-war suggests nylon DTY prices will likely remain range-bound in the short term, with no unilateral trend.
Price Outlook and Risk Warnings
Given the mid-year position and the -2,220 gap from the high, market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic. If 'golden September and silver October' demand materializes, prices could test 17,500. Conversely, weaker-than-expected orders might pull prices back toward 16,000 for support.
For textile companies, the current price level offers a clear reference for decision-making. With an annual fluctuation range of 5,400 CNY, risk management is paramount. Enterprises are advised to hedge costs via futures or forward contracts while closely monitoring upstream inventory changes and brand order rhythms.