On August 28, the Shengze yarn market reported a set of intriguing data: cotton yarn 32s and J40s saw good demand, but overall cotton yarn trading volume was modest; polyester yarn 45s was quoted at 16,000 yuan/ton with acceptable sales, while upstream polyester staple fiber prices weakened. The divergence between yarn prices and raw material trends indicates that cost transmission mechanisms are failing, leaving spinners in a dilemma between raising and lowering prices.
Event Background
According to the daily price list, most yarn varieties held steady from the previous trading day, with only viscose yarn 20S and 30S rising by 100 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton and 18,300 yuan/ton, respectively. Viscose staple fiber averaged around 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining stable, but the market expects short-term adjustments in viscose yarn. Polyester/viscose and polyester/cotton yarns were stable with limited trading volumes, reflecting a subdued overall atmosphere.
Notably, polyester yarn 45s remained at 16,000 yuan/ton, while raw material polyester staple fiber (1.56*38 cotton type) had a center price of only about 8,050 yuan/ton, with a weakening trend. Based on conventional blending ratios, the spread between yarn and raw material prices appears adequate, but actual transactions often involve negotiation, and some mills may quietly offer discounts to secure orders.
This pattern of falling raw materials and stable yarn prices means spinners are not fully benefiting from lower input costs, and they may face inventory devaluation risks. For buyers, the reference value of listed quotes diminishes, making actual transaction prices the key negotiation point.
Industry Impact
On the demand side, the activity in cotton yarn 32s and J40s is directly linked to the production of air-jet polyester-cotton fabrics, indicating continued rigid demand for specific specifications downstream. However, other specifications were sluggish, suggesting that terminal orders have not fully recovered but are showing structural divergence. This divergence requires spinners to plan production more carefully—betting on popular specifications may secure steady sales, but niche specifications could increase inventory pressure.
On the cost side, weakening polyester staple fiber prices contrast with stable viscose staple fiber. Although polyester yarn prices remain stable, the lack of raw material support raises the possibility of catch-up declines; meanwhile, viscose yarn saw slight increases due to firm viscose staple fiber, but market expectations for adjustments have strengthened. This implies that pricing logic is diverging across categories, and spinners need to assess each separately.
For upstream raw material producers, stable yarn prices delay the transmission of raw material price declines, but if terminal demand remains weak, yarn prices will eventually align with costs. At that point, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber may face new downward pressure. The imbalance in profit distribution along the chain is spreading from the yarn segment upward.