The commodity monitoring data on August 28 reveals a telling signal: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, while polyester, nylon, and spandex remained flat. This pattern of 'point-wise rises, flat overall' is uncommon in recent textile raw material markets. More noteworthy is the year-on-year data: chemical fiber chain gains mostly exceed 20%, while cotton yarn and viscose yarn rose less than 6%, indicating a profound shift in profit distribution along the supply chain.
Market Context
According to the monitoring data, three products in the textile sector rose on August 28, with raw silk leading at 2.67%, rising from 416,400 to 427,500 yuan per ton. PTA and cotton rose 0.59% and 0.51% respectively. The remaining 14 monitored products were flat, resulting in an average daily increase of only 0.22%. This pattern of 'few movers, many silent' suggests a lack of broad upward momentum, with capital and expectations concentrating on specific products.
The sharp rise in raw silk is not an isolated event. Year-on-year, raw silk is still down 9.16%, suggesting this jump is more a correction of earlier overselling than a trend reversal. PTA is up 26.54% year-on-year, and cotton up 19.12%, both supported by solid fundamentals—crude oil cost transmission and planting area adjustments. In contrast, polyester staple fiber is up 17.93%, polyester POY up 24.25%, and nylon POY up 21.37%, showing substantial gains in the chemical fiber chain.
Industry Impact
The sustained rise in the chemical fiber chain is reshaping downstream procurement logic. The three major polyester filament products (POY, DTY, FDY) have year-on-year gains above 21%, meaning weaving enterprises using chemical fibers as primary raw materials face raw material costs about one-fifth higher than last year. However, cotton yarn 21S and 32S only rose 5.89% and 5.63%, and viscose yarn just 5.66%—end product price increases lag far behind raw materials, significantly compressing profit margins in weaving and apparel segments.
This 'raw material up, finished product stagnant' scissors effect impacts different chain segments differently. Upstream chemical fiber enterprises benefit from cost-push price increases and improved profitability; midstream weaving enterprises face cost pressure, and with weak end demand, price transmission is blocked, forcing some to cut production or adjust product mixes. For buyers, locking in chemical fiber prices now carries high risk, while cotton yarn and viscose yarn remain relatively stable, allowing increased purchase proportions.
Notably, raw silk's single-day jump against a year-on-year decline of 9.16% may signal a bottom for the silk segment. If this trend continues, downstream enterprises with low inventories may face rising replenishment costs. However, a single-day gain is insufficient to confirm a trend; observing subsequent trading days is necessary.