The price monitoring on August 28 revealed a rare 'three-up, zero-down' pattern in textile bulk commodities, but gains were highly concentrated: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, PTA and cotton rose modestly by 0.59% and 0.51%, while the other 14 products remained flat. This calm surface with underlying divergence is the most instructive signal in the current textile raw material market.
The Logic Behind Price Divergence
The 2.67% daily rise in raw silk is not an isolated event. Its year-on-year decline of 9.16% suggests this is more of an oversold rebound than a trend reversal. Silkworm cocoon supply enters a seasonal gap period, and downstream silk fabric mills are restocking for autumn orders, driving short-term buying. However, buyers should be cautious: without sustained demand support, the rebound may be limited.
In stark contrast, the chemical fiber chain remains firm. PTA is up 26.54% year-on-year, polyester filament yarns (POY, DTY, FDY) all rose over 21%, and nylon DTY and spandex recorded gains of 16.9% and 21.65%, respectively. This is underpinned by high international oil prices pushing up petrochemical costs, while resilient textile and apparel exports support chemical fiber demand.
Cotton rose 19.12% year-on-year, but only 0.51% daily, indicating the market has become indifferent to weather speculation in Xinjiang cotton regions. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose only 5.89% and 5.63% year-on-year, significantly lower than cotton, meaning spinning margins are being squeezed by rising raw material costs. This poor transmission from upstream to downstream may prompt some mills to adjust operating rates or product mixes.
Transmission Effects Across the Chain
Price divergence is reshaping bargaining power across different segments. Chemical fiber companies benefit from cost-push inflation, with relatively ample profit margins; cotton textile enterprises face a 'high cotton, weak yarn' scissors gap, squeezing profits. Viscose staple fiber rose 10.43% year-on-year, but rayon yarn only 5.66%, reflecting profit distribution imbalances in the rayon chain.
For buyers, the market is not broadly rising but presents structural opportunities and risks. The short-term rise in raw silk may overextend and carries high chase risk; PTA and polyester products have high year-on-year gains, but if oil corrects, they could fall significantly. A safer strategy is to lock in medium-to-long-term contracts to reduce spot volatility.
Foreign trade companies must pay close attention to the interplay of RMB exchange rates and shipping costs. Chemical fiber products have a high export share, and rising raw material costs may weaken price competitiveness, but if overseas demand recovers, cost pass-through ability will strengthen. It is advisable to closely monitor inventory cycles in major export markets and flexibly adjust pricing strategies.