The August 28 price monitoring data for textile commodities reveals a notable signal: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, while polyester, nylon, and viscose products remained flat. This pattern of 'one rising, many flat' is uncommon in the recent textile raw material market and may indicate that upstream-downstream negotiations are entering a new phase.
The Logic Behind Price Divergence
Raw silk quotes rose from 416,400 yuan/ton to 427,500 yuan/ton, setting a recent daily record, yet year-on-year it still fell 9.16%. This suggests the current rise is more about short-term supply-demand mismatches than a trend reversal. The pace of silkworm cocoon releases, reeling mill operating rates, and temporary inventory replenishment by downstream silk fabric orders can all amplify intraday volatility. In contrast, PTA and cotton rose 0.59% and 0.51% respectively, with year-on-year gains of 26.54% and 19.12%, showing stronger cost support and demand resilience.
The flat performance of chemical fiber products reflects another reality: polyester staple fiber, POY, spandex, and nylon series quotes remained unchanged, but year-on-year gains are generally between 17% and 24%. This indicates that price increases in the chemical fiber chain have completed a phased transmission and are currently in a high-level stalemate. For buyers, this means raw material costs will not rise further in the short term, but there is also little room for a pullback, requiring more refined inventory decisions.
What Year-on-Year Data Reveals
Looking at the year-on-year dimension provides a clearer picture of the different raw materials. Acrylonitrile rose 44.12% year-on-year, the largest among monitored products, directly linked to high crude oil prices and supply tightness due to overseas plant maintenance. Polyester filament series (POY, DTY, FDY) rose between 21% and 24%, and spandex rose 21.65%, indicating that the chemical fiber sector is in a prosperous range.
In contrast, cotton yarn 21S and 32S only rose 5.89% and 5.63% year-on-year, and viscose spun yarn rose 5.66%, showing much milder gains. This 'strong chemical fiber, weak cotton' pattern reflects that downstream demand for apparel fabrics is shifting toward chemical fiber products, while pure cotton products face weak terminal consumption and substitution pressure. Viscose staple fiber rose 10.43% year-on-year, falling in between, possibly related to dissolving pulp costs and environmental production restrictions.
Transmission Effects on Buyers and Foreign Trade Enterprises
The divergence in raw material prices is reshaping the cost structures and pricing strategies of downstream enterprises. For weaving mills that primarily use chemical fibers, the current high-level stabilization of raw material prices means that profit margins on previously locked orders are compressed, and new orders require recalculating costs. For enterprises using raw silk and cotton yarn, increased short-term volatility requires procurement departments to track market movements more closely and avoid concentrated purchases at peaks.
Foreign trade enterprises face more complex challenges. Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, changes in ocean freight, and raw material costs combine to force a shortening of the export pricing adjustment cycle. With relatively large year-on-year increases in chemical fiber products, if overseas customers have limited acceptance of price increases, enterprises may need to balance profit margins against order volumes. Meanwhile, sharp fluctuations in niche raw materials like raw silk may affect the export competitiveness of high-value silk products.