On August 28, commodity price monitoring revealed a notable divergence in textile raw materials: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, PTA and cotton rose 0.59% and 0.51% respectively, while all other 14 monitored products remained flat. This 'three-up, fourteen-flat' structure is unusual and suggests subtle shifts in price transmission mechanisms across the supply chain.
Market Background
From a year-on-year perspective, chemical fiber feedstocks showed prominent gains. Acrylonitrile rose 44.12%, PTA 26.54%, and polyester filament yarns (POY, DTY, FDY) increased between 21% and 24%, with spandex also up 21.65%. In contrast, the cotton spinning chain was more moderate: cotton rose 19.12%, cotton yarn 21S and 32S increased only 5.89% and 5.63% respectively, while viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn gained around 10%.
This 'strong chemical fiber, weak cotton' pattern, combined with the raw silk anomaly, reflects different supply-demand fundamentals. Raw silk jumped from 416,400 to 427,500 yuan per ton in one day, a record daily gain, yet year-on-year it is still down 9.16%, suggesting a short-term supply disruption or sentiment-driven move rather than a trend reversal.
Industry Impact
For downstream weaving and apparel companies, the divergent price increases raise cost management complexity. Sustained high chemical fiber costs have squeezed margins for polyester and nylon fabric makers, while relatively stable cotton yarn offers some relief for pure cotton product lines. This scissors effect may push buyers to adjust product mixes, increasing the share of cotton blends or viscose-based products.
Looking at transmission logic, PTA gains often lag crude oil fluctuations, while acrylonitrile's sharp rise ties to tight propylene supply. These strengths will gradually pass through to polyester and acrylic fabrics, but the fact that polyester staple fiber and yarn prices remained flat suggests processing stages have not yet followed, possibly due to weak end-demand. If feedstock costs stay high, processors face a dilemma: raise prices and lose orders, or absorb costs and lose profits.
The raw silk jump deserves special attention. As a key input for high-end fabrics like mulberry silk, its volatility directly impacts silk companies' procurement budgets. The year-on-year decline of 9.16% indicates prices are still below last year, but a 2.67% daily spike could trigger restocking, creating a self-reinforcing upward move. Exporters dealing with silk products should guard against quoting risks.