The August 28 price monitoring data for textile commodities reveals a structural truth hidden beneath the surface: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day to 427,500 yuan per ton, while PTA and cotton rose modestly by 0.59% and 0.51% respectively. However, all other 14 monitored items remained flat. This pattern of 'three risers, fourteen steady' is less a signal of market recovery than a concentrated reflection of divergent pricing logic across the supply chain.
The Logic Behind the Data
The single-day anomaly in raw silk deserves the most attention. Its year-on-year decline of 9.16% indicates this is not a trend reversal but rather a short-term supply-demand mismatch or speculative activity. As silkworm cocoon procurement enters its final phase, reduced production expectations in some regions, combined with a restocking window for downstream silk fabric mills, tend to amplify spot prices. But buyers should remain cautious: raw silk prices are highly elastic, and daily swings exceeding 2% are not uncommon—chasing highs requires prudence.
PTA and cotton's moderate gains are more closely tied to cost-side factors. PTA's year-on-year increase has reached 26.54%, while cotton is up 19.12%, both hovering near annual highs. PTA's rise is directly transmitted from crude oil prices, while cotton is supported by reduced planting area and weather disruptions. Notably, both recorded daily gains below 0.6%, suggesting momentum is waning and market acceptance of high-priced raw materials is nearing saturation.
Divergence: Who Is Truly Strong?
When extending the timeline to year-on-year comparisons, the divergence becomes even more pronounced. Acrylonitrile leads with a 44.12% increase, while polyester filament products (POY, DTY, FDY) are concentrated in the 21%-24% range, spandex up 21.65%, and nylon POY up 21.37%. These items share a common upstream petrochemical chain, with obvious cost-push characteristics. In contrast, cotton yarn, viscose yarn, and viscose staple fiber show year-on-year gains of only 5%-10%, significantly underperforming.
What does this divergence mean? For weaving mills, raw material cost pressures are not evenly distributed—polyester-based materials have already squeezed processing margins deeply, while cotton-based products are relatively mild. This could shift orders toward cotton-based products. Foreign trade companies need to monitor the combined effect of exchange rates and raw material prices, especially for export orders primarily using polyester or nylon; quoting frequency may need to accelerate.
Event Landing: Undercurrents Amid Stability
Returning to the August 28 data, the absence of any declining items is itself a signal: the market has strong bottom support but lacks upward momentum. This state of 'can't fall, can't rise much' typically occurs during the transition from off-season to peak season. Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates remain around 70%, with dyeing mill order backlogs of 10-15 days, indicating terminal demand has not exploded but has not deteriorated either.
Looking ahead, the key variables are crude oil prices and seed cotton purchase prices. If oil remains high, PTA and polyester products may continue to follow; if new cotton purchase prices open low, cotton's year-on-year gains could narrow. For raw silk, attention should turn to autumn silkworm rearing conditions; any production reduction news could trigger another pulse of price surges.