The commodity monitoring data for August 28 paints a nuanced price map for the textile supply chain: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, PTA and cotton followed with gains of 0.59% and 0.51%, while more than a dozen varieties including polyester, nylon, and viscose remained flat. This pattern of 'pointwise gains with broad stability' reflects a market caught between cost-push and demand-pull forces.
Behind the Price Divergence
Raw silk's single-day movement deserves the most attention. At 427,500 yuan/ton, the price is still 9.16% lower than a year ago, but a 2.67% daily gain is rare in the textile sector and usually signals a short-term supply contraction or concentrated speculative sentiment. Given that raw silk prices have been in negative year-on-year territory for a long period, this rebound may represent a correction of oversold conditions, possibly linked to the tail-end of cocoon procurement in major producing areas and expectations of tighter supply.
PTA and cotton rose in tandem, driven by cost logic. PTA is up 26.54% year-on-year, while cotton is up 19.12%, both near their highest levels in a year. PTA's strength is supported by higher crude oil prices and tight PX supply, while cotton is affected by reduced planting area and weather disruptions, with the gap before new crop arrivals amplifying price elasticity. Notably, cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices did not follow the uptrend, with year-on-year gains of only 5.89% and 5.63%, significantly lagging raw materials—a clear sign that spinning margins are being squeezed.
The Calm in Chemical Fibers and Underlying Pressures
In contrast to the active cotton chain, polyester filament, staple fiber, and nylon prices all remained flat. But this is not calm waters—polyester POY is up 24.25% year-on-year, FDY up 21.81%, DTY up 21.66%, and nylon POY up 21.37%. These figures indicate that the chemical fiber price surge occurred earlier and is now in a phase of temporary stalemate.
The real concern is acrylonitrile. Although its price was unchanged on the day, its year-on-year gain of 44.12% is the highest among all monitored varieties. Acrylonitrile is a key feedstock for acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber. Its high price not only affects textiles but also transmits through the supply chain to engineering plastics and other sectors. For textile companies using acrylonitrile as a raw material, cost pressure is not a 'prospect' but a real-time profit impact.
Viscose staple fiber is up 10.43% year-on-year, while viscose yarn is up only 5.66%. The price scissors between raw materials and downstream products is also evident in the cotton and viscose chains, indicating that end-apparel demand is not providing enough room for price pass-through. For procurement teams, the key is not to be swayed by daily fluctuations but to base decisions on year-on-year trends and inventory cycles.
Transmission Effects on Procurement and Foreign Trade
From a foreign trade perspective, high year-on-year raw material prices are changing order quotation logic. PTA and polyester varieties are up more than 20% year-on-year, which means forward contract prices based on overseas futures will be revised upward. For long-term dollar-denominated orders, the dual squeeze of exchange rate fluctuations and raw material costs may push some overseas buyers toward short orders or wait-and-see. Fluctuations in natural fibers like raw silk and cotton directly affect the export competitiveness of high-end fabrics and home textiles.
More noteworthy is the substitution effect among varieties. When cotton is up 19.12% and polyester staple fiber up 17.93%, the cost advantage of blended yarns is re-emerging. Some spinning mills may adjust their cotton blending ratios to increase chemical fiber usage as a hedge against cotton price risk. If this micro-behavior becomes a trend, it will further alter raw material demand structure and impact cross-commodity spreads between Zhengzhou cotton and PTA futures.