Raw Material Shifts: Silk Jumps 2.67% in a Day, Reshaping Cost Transmission Logic in Textile Chain

The commodity price monitoring on August 28 delivered a striking contrast: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, while polyester, nylon, and viscose products held flat. Such divergence within the same raw material segment indicates that cost transmission is not synchronized but rather re-priced according to each product's supply-demand dynamics.

Event Background

Monitoring data showed that only three textile commodities rose that day: raw silk led with a 2.67% increase, followed by PTA (0.59%) and cotton (0.51%). The remaining 14 tracked products were unchanged, resulting in an average daily gain of 0.22%. Notably, raw silk rose from 416,400 to 427,500 yuan per ton, yet its year-on-year decline remained at 9.16%, suggesting the rebound is a correction rather than a trend reversal.

PTA and cotton posted moderate gains, reflecting cost support. PTA's year-on-year increase reached 26.54%, while cotton rose 19.12%, both near annual highs. In contrast, acrylonitrile, despite a 44.12% year-on-year surge, remained flat on the day, indicating its rally has entered a plateau.

Industry Impact

The sharp rise in raw silk likely stems from temporary supply tightness in cocoon and silk filament. However, the year-on-year decline of 9.16% suggests this is more of an oversold bounce. For weaving mills, a single-day cost increase of about 11,000 yuan per ton could compress profit margins for silk fabrics and may push some orders toward substitute fibers.

The flat performance of chemical fibers sends a different signal: the 0.59% rise in PTA has not yet transmitted to polyester filament or staple fiber, indicating that inventory pressure and downstream purchasing hesitation are offsetting cost pushes. Polyester POY and spandex have already accumulated substantial year-on-year gains (24.25% and 21.65% respectively), making further price hikes increasingly difficult.

Cotton's 0.51% rise, with a 19.12% year-on-year increase, keeps raw material costs high for cotton spinners. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat, with year-on-year gains of only 5.89% and 5.63%, far below cotton's increase. This suggests limited ability to pass through costs, squeezing spinners' margins.

Practical Recommendations

For Procurement Teams - Given the short-term volatility in raw silk, adopt a just-in-time purchasing strategy to avoid chasing highs; monitor cocoon supply cycles and consider phased buying on dips. - With inventory pressure in chemical fibers, consider delaying bulk purchases and negotiating better payment terms as suppliers aim to destock.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Incorporate raw material price adjustment clauses in quotations, especially for silk and pure cotton orders, to protect margins from price swings. - Monitor exchange rates and crude oil trends, as PTA and polyester costs are closely linked to international markets; use forward contracts to hedge price risks.