On August 28, 2026, China's textile commodity prices showed a rare divergence: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a day, PTA and cotton rose 0.59% and 0.51% respectively, while the other 14 monitored products remained flat. On the surface, it was a quiet ripple, but year-on-year data reveal deep cracks in the industrial chain—acrylonitrile surged 44.12%, polyester filament products generally rose over 21%, while raw silk fell 9.16%. This pattern of "strong chemical fibers, weak natural fibers" is reshaping procurement cost logic and inventory strategies.
The Logic Behind Price Divergence
The sharp rise in raw silk is not accidental. As the terminal raw material of the silk industry chain, raw silk prices have long been suppressed by weak downstream demand for silk fabrics, with a year-on-year decline of 9.16% reflecting nearly a year of downturn. However, the sudden increase at the end of August is more likely related to short-term supply tightening—summer cocoon purchases are nearing completion, some factories have increased restocking intentions, and speculative capital has amplified price fluctuations. In contrast, the moderate rises in PTA and cotton are closer to cost-push: international oil price rebounds have raised PX costs, while cotton spot remains firm during the pre-harvest period.
Notably, chemical fiber varieties showed "collective silence." Polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, spandex, etc., remained unchanged, but year-on-year increases ranged from 10% to 24%. This indicates that current prices are at historically high levels, making downstream fabric mills cautious about taking orders, thus hindering price transmission. For example, polyester FDY rose 21.81% year-on-year, but has barely changed over the past month, suggesting intense game-playing between upstream and downstream—factories want to protect profits, while buyers demand concessions.
Transmission Effects on the Industrial Chain
This divergence affects different types of textile enterprises differently. For silk mills using raw silk as raw material, the sudden cost increase will directly compress profit margins, especially for those with long-term contracts, facing the double squeeze of "rising raw materials and locked order prices." Chemical fiber enterprises, on the other hand, are enjoying cost dividends—acrylonitrile surged 44.12% year-on-year, but downstream acrylic yarn prices only rose 5.9%, meaning acrylic producers' profit margins are significantly compressed, possibly forcing capacity adjustments.
For traders, the simultaneous rise in PTA and cotton offers hedging opportunities. PTA, as the source of the polyester chain, often leads polyester filament prices by 3-4 weeks. Currently, PTA is up 26.54% year-on-year, while polyester POY is only up 24.25%, with the spread turning positive from negative, indicating profit repair in the polyester segment. This signal may attract more speculative buying into the PTA market, further pushing up short-term prices.
From a macro perspective, this price divergence contrasts sharply with weak terminal clothing consumption. National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to July 2026, retail sales of clothing grew only 3.2% year-on-year, far below the increases in textile raw materials. This "hot raw materials, cold terminal" scissors gap means price increases cannot be passed downstream and will eventually be absorbed by intermediate links. For export-oriented enterprises, exchange rate fluctuations and shipping cost uncertainties add further pricing difficulty.