The August 28 monitoring of textile bulk commodity prices presents a noteworthy signal: raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, with PTA and cotton following gains of 0.59% and 0.51%, while downstream cotton yarn, polyester yarn, and viscose staple fiber all remained flat. This divergence between upstream and downstream reveals a delicate moment in the cost transmission chain—upstream price hikes have yet to penetrate fabric and garment stages, but pressure is building.
Event Background
Monitoring data shows raw silk prices rose from 416,400 yuan/ton on August 27 to 427,500 yuan/ton, marking a recent single-day high. PTA stood at 6,213.25 yuan/ton, up 26.54% year-on-year; cotton stood at 18,263.83 yuan/ton, up 19.12%. Notably, acrylonitrile remained flat that day but surged 44.12% year-on-year, making it the most aggressive riser in the entire textile raw material pool.
The rally is driven by multiple factors: raw silk is supported by tight silkworm cocoon supply and recovering silk orders; PTA is influenced by crude oil fluctuations and PX costs; cotton is linked to global production cut expectations and domestic reserve policies. However, cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were unchanged, and all polyester filament varieties showed no movement, indicating that weaving mills remain cautious about passing on raw material costs.
Industry Impact
Raw material price increases without corresponding yarn hikes mean weaving mills' profit margins are being squeezed. Polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn are up 17.93% and 5.90% year-on-year respectively, while spandex is up 21.65%. If these cumulative cost pressures are released during the peak ordering season in the second half of the year, fabric prices are likely to be forced upward. For foreign trade companies, the window of mismatch between current quotes and procurement costs is narrowing; once raw material prices continue to rise, locking in prices will become significantly more difficult.
From a pass-through timing perspective, raw material price hikes typically take 2-4 weeks to reflect in yarn quotes, and then further time to reach fabric through weaving and dyeing stages. Therefore, the current wave of increases will likely manifest in greige and fabric prices by mid-to-late September. For buyers, now may be the last window to lock in prices and avoid subsequent hikes.