The commodity monitoring data for August 28 reveals a clear signal: the textile raw material market is not recovering across the board but showing marked structural divergence. Raw silk surged 2.67% in a single day, PTA and cotton followed with 0.59% and 0.51% gains, while all other fifteen tracked products remained flat. This pattern of 'three risers, fifteen steady' indicates a lack of broad-based momentum, with capital and demand concentrating in specific segments.
Background
Year-on-year comparisons highlight the exceptional performance of the chemical fiber chain. Acrylonitrile rose 44.12%, polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all gained over 21%, and spandex was up 21.65%. These figures reflect a higher crude oil price center and recovering overseas orders. In contrast, raw silk is still down 9.16% year-on-year despite its sharp daily jump, with absolute prices at 427,500 yuan/ton remaining well below last year's levels. Cotton rose 19.12% year-on-year but only 0.51% daily, suggesting its upward slope is flattening.
Notably, cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices stayed flat, with year-on-year gains of just 5.89% and 5.63%, significantly lower than cotton's 19.12%. This implies shrinking profit margins in the spinning segment—raw materials are rising, but yarn prices are not keeping pace, weakening the bargaining power of intermediate processors. Viscose staple fiber rose 10.43% year-on-year, while rayon yarn only gained 5.66%, again showing a 'scissors gap' between raw materials and finished goods.
Industry Impact
This divergence affects different parts of the supply chain in distinct ways. For chemical fiber producers, the continued strength in PTA and polyester filament means persistent cost pressure, but whether downstream weavers can accept higher purchase prices will determine if this rally can sustain. Polyester FDY is currently quoted at 8,970 yuan/ton, up 21.81% year-on-year; if terminal apparel orders cannot raise prices in tandem, weaver profits will be squeezed further.
For the silk industry, the sharp daily jump in raw silk looks more like a corrective rebound. Prolonged declines had led some silk reeling mills to cut output, and supply contraction is now supporting prices. But whether the 2.67% daily gain can continue depends on downstream demand from satin and home textile manufacturers. If it's just short-term restocking, prices may resume volatility.
Cotton's moderate rise reflects a 'slow bull' character. A 19.12% year-on-year gain is already substantial, but the meager 0.51% daily increase suggests limited acceptance of high-priced cotton. Cotton spinning mills may prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing rather than heavy stockpiling, as evidenced by flat cotton yarn prices.