Textile Commodities Show Divergence: Raw Silk Leads, Chemical Fiber Awaits Peak Season

The August 28 textile commodity price list reveals a telling divergence: most items remained flat, but raw silk jumped 2.67% in a day, with PTA and cotton following with modest gains of 0.59% and 0.51%. Behind the seemingly calm average daily rise of 0.22% lies a stark contrast across the supply chain—chemical fiber products stayed unchanged while natural fiber raw materials strengthened independently. This divergence is not accidental; it points to different supply-demand dynamics converging at this moment.\n\n## Background\n\nLooking at year-on-year data, acrylonitrile led with a 44.12% increase, followed by polyester POY (24.25%), spandex (21.65%), and polyester FDY (21.81%), while nylon POY rose 21.37%. These figures indicate a significant revaluation of chemical fiber upstream materials and some polyester filament products over the past year. In contrast, raw silk fell 9.16% year-on-year, sharply contrasting with its daily rise—possibly reflecting supply reduction expectations in silkworm areas, but long-term demand weakness remains.\n\nNotably, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose only 5.89% and 5.63% year-on-year, far behind cotton's 19.12% gain. This price gap suggests spinning mills are seeing margins squeezed as upstream costs rise. Similarly, viscose staple fiber rose 10.43% but viscose yarn only 5.66%, indicating the same profit compression in the viscose chain.\n\n## Industry Impact\n\nFrom a supply chain perspective, PTA's 0.59% daily rise, though modest, adds pressure on downstream polyester costs given its 26.54% year-on-year increase. Polyester filament products (POY, DTY, FDY) all remained flat despite year-on-year gains above 21%, indicating that polyester plants are holding prices steady amid high costs and tepid demand. For buyers, this means short-term stability, but any fluctuation in crude oil or PX could trigger a rapid price catch-up in polyester.\n\nThe raw silk anomaly deserves separate attention. A 2.67% single-day jump is significant in textile commodities, especially when all other products were flat. Combined with its 9.16% year-on-year decline, this rise is more likely a short-term supply disruption or speculative activity rather than a trend reversal. For silk fabric buyers, chasing prices now is unwise; monitoring volume-price confirmation in the coming sessions is advisable.\n\nCotton rose 0.51% to 18,263.83 yuan/ton, up 19.12% year-on-year, placing it at relatively high levels. For cotton mills, high raw material costs combined with sluggish cotton yarn price increases mean further margin compression. Some small and medium mills may adjust product mixes, increasing blended or chemical fiber yarn production.\n\n## Practical Advice\n\n### For Buyers\n- Chemical fiber raw materials (e.g., polyester, nylon) are currently stable but have high year-on-year increases; purchase on a need basis, avoid overstocking, and monitor crude oil and PTA futures to guard against cost-driven hikes.\n- Raw silk is volatile; adopt a wait-and-see approach, consider phased buying if prices retreat toward year-on-year decline levels; lock prices with suppliers for silk fabric orders to mitigate single-day jump risks.\n\n### For Foreign Trade Companies\n- Given the narrowing spread between cotton yarn and cotton, profit margins on cotton yarn exports are limited; consider floating pricing mechanisms in quotes or sign long-term agreements with mills to lock in processing fees.\n- Leverage raw material cost data (e.g., polyester FDY +21.81%) when negotiating with overseas clients to justify price adjustments; also watch exchange rate fluctuations to protect actual earnings.