Chemical Fiber Raw Materials Lead Gains as Textile Prices Diverge

In the final trading week of August 2026, the textile raw material market presented a rare pattern of 'three gainers and a flat board': raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, PTA and cotton rose 0.59% and 0.51% respectively, while the remaining 14 monitored products held steady. On the surface, the market was calm, but the year-on-year data reveals deeper divergence—acrylonitrile accumulated a 44.12% increase, polyester filament series generally rose over 20%, while raw silk fell 9.16%. This 'ice and fire' pattern is reshaping the cost structure and procurement logic of the textile industry chain.

The Logic Behind Raw Material Divergence

The three categories with the sharpest gains correspond to different drivers. Acrylonitrile's 44% year-on-year increase is mainly due to overseas plant maintenance and tight domestic propylene supply, with clear cost-push effects. PTA's 26.54% rise is linked to a higher crude oil price center and high operating rates in polyester production. Meanwhile, polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all rose over 21% year-on-year, indicating solid downstream demand for polyester, though this support comes more from 'volume over price' than terminal consumption upgrades.

Notably, raw silk prices fell 9.16% year-on-year, related to a recovery in silkworm cocoon production. In 2026, spring cocoon output increased year-on-year, coupled with sluggish silk fabric orders, leading to slow inventory destocking. The single-day 2.67% rebound looks more like a technical recovery than a trend reversal. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose only about 5% year-on-year, significantly underperforming chemical fiber raw materials, reflecting cotton substitution effects and limited pricing power for cotton spinners.

Transmission Effects Along the Chain

The sharp divergence in raw material prices is changing cost structures across the textile industry. For polyester fabric weavers, over 21% raw material increases mean an additional cost of approximately 1,500-2,000 yuan per ton of fabric. Terminal apparel buyers have limited acceptance of price hikes, forcing weavers to balance profit preservation against order retention. Some companies are adjusting product mixes toward higher value-added differentiated products to offset margin compression in conventional items.

Cotton spinners face a relatively milder situation, with cotton up 19.12% year-on-year but cotton yarn only up 5.6%, indicating incomplete cost pass-through. Behind this are cotton import quota policies and supply elasticity from domestic planting area changes. For viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn, year-on-year gains of 10% and 5.66% show a relatively balanced supply-demand in the cellulose fiber chain, with prices mainly following dissolving pulp costs.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For polyester raw materials, adopt a phased procurement strategy, avoiding concentrated purchases at price peaks. Monitor crude oil fluctuations and PTA plant maintenance schedules to lock in forward contracts at favorable times. - Although raw silk rebounded in a single day, it remains low year-on-year. If you have silk fabric orders, consider increasing purchases, but be wary of downward pressure from rising cocoon output.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting export orders, fully account for over 20% year-on-year increases in chemical fiber raw materials. Establish price linkage mechanisms with clients to prevent profit erosion from exchange rate and raw material fluctuations. - Pay attention to supply risks for niche raw materials like acrylonitrile. Sign long-term agreements with suppliers to ensure stable supply, and evaluate alternatives such as bio-based acrylonitrile.