The price monitoring data for August 28 reveals a telling signal: while the chemical fiber chain remained flat, raw silk jumped 2.67% in a single day, pushing its average price to 427,500 yuan per ton, while cotton and PTA recorded modest gains of 0.51% and 0.59%. This divergence is not accidental; it reflects that different raw material sectors are in distinctly different supply-demand cycles.
Background
Of the 17 textile varieties monitored that day, 14 were unchanged from the previous trading day, with only three rising, resulting in an average daily increase of 0.22%. On the surface, the market was calm, but year-on-year data revealed deeper trends: PTA rose 26.54%, cotton rose 19.12%, polyester filament series generally increased by 21% to 24%, and nylon and spandex recorded gains of 14% to 22% year-on-year.
In sharp contrast, raw silk fell 9.16% year-on-year, despite recent rebounds, remaining below last year's levels. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose only 5.89% and 5.63% year-on-year, significantly lagging upstream raw materials, suggesting squeezed profit margins in the spinning sector.
Industry Impact
The sharp rise in raw silk deserves scrutiny. A 2.67% daily gain is uncommon in textile commodities, usually corresponding to short-term supply disruptions or concentrated downstream restocking. Given that raw silk prices are still in negative year-on-year territory, this jump is more likely a combination of oversold rebound and seasonal demand. For silk reeling enterprises, this means improved bargaining power, but sustainability depends on later cocoon supply and export orders.
The flat chemical fiber chain sends a different signal: PTA, polyester, and nylon are in a wait-and-see phase after earlier gains. PTA's year-on-year increase of 26.54% is mainly driven by crude oil volatility and PX supply, but downstream weaving mills have limited acceptance of high raw material prices, hindering price transmission. For polyester plants, current processing margins may be near breakeven; if crude oil corrects, PTA faces downside risk.
Cotton rose 19.12% year-on-year but only 0.51% daily, indicating the market is awaiting direction from the new cotton crop. Cotton yarn price increases are far smaller than cotton, meaning spinning mills face rising costs. If terminal demand cannot effectively absorb higher prices, mills may be forced to cut production or adjust product mixes. For buyers, the current price spread between cotton yarn and cotton suggests that locking in forward raw material costs is more prudent than chasing spot prices.