On the last trading day of August, the feedstock segment of the polyester chain saw a collective surge: MEG futures hit limit-up intraday, rising 6% to 5,331 yuan per ton; PX main contract gained over 4% to 8,360 yuan; PTA main contract expanded its gain to 2%, trading at 5,708 yuan. The synchronized rally across three major commodities is rare in recent months, driven by a confluence of cost push, supply tightness, and speculative sentiment.
Event Background
Looking at the trading pace, MEG took the lead. At 09:03, PTA had risen 2%; by 09:18, MEG had expanded to 4%; and at 10:05, it hit the daily limit. PX followed, climbing over 4% by 11:22. This sequential pattern suggests that capital was not blindly speculating on a single commodity but rather following the logic of the chain: from PX to PTA to MEG, then to polyester.
Notably, MEG's limit-up was not an isolated event. In recent weeks, several MEG plants in China entered maintenance season, coupled with delayed arrivals of imported cargoes, leading to continuous destocking at East China ports and tightening spot liquidity. Meanwhile, international oil prices moved higher amid geopolitical disturbances, lifting naphtha costs and providing support for PX and MEG from the cost side.
Industry Impact
The sharp rise in feedstock is transmitting downstream through pricing mechanisms. For polyester producers, PTA and MEG are key raw materials for polyester filament and staple fiber. Their simultaneous increase means a rapid rise in production costs. According to public industry data, on August 31, some polyester plants raised polyester filament offers by 50-100 yuan per ton, and polyester staple fiber offers also followed.
However, the transmission is not frictionless. The weaving sector is currently in the pre-September-October stocking period, with orders picking up, but terminal demand recovery is limited, and greige fabric inventories remain at medium-to-high levels. If raw material prices continue to rise, they will squeeze margins in the weaving segment, potentially causing an inversion where raw materials rise but fabrics do not. For buyers, chasing prices at this point offers poor cost-effectiveness; replenishing on demand is more prudent.
From a margin distribution perspective, this rally favors upstream producers. Higher PX and MEG prices directly boost their profits, while the processing margin for polyester may be compressed. If raw material gains continue to outpace polyester product prices, some small and medium polyester plants may face losses, leading to a passive reduction in operating rates, which in turn would dampen demand for raw materials, creating a self-correcting loop.