On August 31, the benchmark price of nylon POY in China settled at 14,625 yuan per ton, up 4.46% from 14,000 yuan at the beginning of the month. The single-day change was flat, but the monthly accumulation has prompted the market to reassess the supply-demand landscape for the second half of the year. The price sits exactly at the midpoint of the annual range, with a 3,325 yuan cushion above the year's low of 11,300 yuan and a 2,325 yuan gap to the high of 16,950 yuan. This upward shift is not mere seasonality but the result of a three-way tug-of-war among costs, inventories, and expectations.
Why the price center is moving up
Annual statistics show that the average price of nylon POY over the past 12 months was 13,079.23 yuan per ton, meaning the current price is about 11.8% above the average. This deviation indicates that the market has left the bottom and entered a mid-range operating band. On the feedstock side, caprolactam prices have strengthened continuously since Q3, directly raising production costs for nylon POY. On the supply side, maintenance at some plants has tightened regional availability, strengthening mills' willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, downstream weaving mills have accelerated pre-holiday stocking, improving order visibility. These three factors combined have kept prices above 14,500 yuan for three consecutive weeks in August.
It is worth noting that a zero daily change does not mean a stagnant market. At elevated prices, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers intensifies: sellers try to pass on cost pressures, while buyers hedge risks through diversified purchasing and lower inventory levels. This standoff often signals that prices are seeking a new direction in the short term, rather than continuing a unilateral trend.
Profit redistribution along the chain
The direct beneficiaries of the POY price increase are polymerization and spinning segments, but pressure is transmitting downstream. For weaving mills, raw material costs typically account for over 70% of total costs; every 100 yuan rise in POY translates into about 80 yuan higher cost per ton of grey fabric. With terminal apparel order prices not yet adjusted upward, processing margins in weaving are being squeezed significantly. Some small and medium-sized weaving factories have begun to reduce POY purchases, instead consuming cheaper inventories from earlier periods, which partly explains the slowdown in transaction volumes in late August.
From a broader perspective, the upward price center is reshaping profit distribution across the chain. Upstream players, leveraging raw material monopolies and high concentration, capture excess profits, while midstream processing faces a "two-sided squeeze"—rising input costs and lagging output price increases. This imbalance cannot persist indefinitely and will eventually be corrected through two channels: either strong terminal demand enables full price pass-through, or upstream concessions bring POY prices down. Currently, demand resilience is insufficient to support comprehensive price increases, so the risk of a pullback is accumulating.
Implications for procurement and foreign trade
For procurement teams, the current price is in the mid-range—neither a bargain-hunting opportunity nor a time for panic chasing. A "stepped replenishment" strategy is recommended, maintaining inventory at 15-20 days of usage to avoid cost overruns due to price swings. Also, monitor caprolactam plant operations; if concentrated maintenance occurs, POY prices may move higher.
Foreign trade enterprises should be wary of the linkage between exchange rates and raw material prices. If the RMB exchange rate fluctuates more and raw material costs rise, export quotation competitiveness may weaken. It is advisable to include price adjustment clauses in long-term contracts, incorporating raw material fluctuations into pricing formulas to reduce unilateral risk.