The long-staple cotton market is in a delicate testing phase. Following last week's volatile upward movement in Zhengzhou cotton futures, quotes for 2024/25 and 2025/26 long-staple cotton in Xinjiang storage increased by 100-300 yuan per ton. However, no buying spree has emerged; mills are purchasing only for immediate needs. The price hike appears to be a litmus test for downstream tolerance of higher costs.
Price tiers and inventory structure
Clear price stratification exists in southern Xinjiang warehouses. 2024/25 crop grade 336/337 (strength 39-41 cN/tex) is quoted at 26,200-26,800 yuan per ton, while 2025/26 same grade (strength 39-40 cN/tex) is at 27,800-28,200 yuan. Some 2023/24 crop grade 336 old stocks are offered at 24,000-24,200 yuan, creating a spread of 3,600-4,000 yuan—far wider than typical years, reflecting quality discounts and holders' financial pressure.
Notably, an Awat ginner still holds about 350 tons of 2025/26 long-staple cotton in Aksu Yinxing Logistics, mostly low-grade (no main grade/41 grade, length ≤36mm, strength 39-41 cN/tex). These resources are negotiable but difficult to move as mills prioritize consistent quality.
Credit tightening and destocking pressure
New-season funding constraints are pushing ginners to accelerate sales. Ginners in Bayingolin and Aksu report that financial institutions have tightened credit for 2026/27 cotton purchasing, with reduced quotas and higher requirements for self-funded capital or loan margins. Some ginners face rising financing difficulties; without faster sales and cash recovery, new-season seed cotton purchasing and ginning operations could strain liquidity.
This makes September-October a critical destocking window. Sellers may offer greater discounts for package deals, especially for low-grade lots. For buyers, this could be a chance to lock in cheaper old-crop cotton, but quality risks must be weighed.
Will high-count yarn demand materialize?
Industry expectations point to rising orders for home textiles, premium underwear, infant clothing, and 2027 spring/summer mid-to-high-end shirts and T-shirts during the 'golden September and silver October' season. Xinjiang mills' capacity for C60S and above high-count yarns continues to grow, potentially boosting long-staple consumption.
However, demand recovery is not yet certain. Mills are not panic-buying despite price hikes, suggesting that terminal order transmission is still in progress. If high-count yarn orders surge as expected, prices may find support; if not, the current uptick could prove temporary, with downside risk ahead.