The August 31 commodity monitoring data sends an unusual signal: the textile sector rose slightly by 0.18% on average, but internal price movements showed clear divergence. PTA jumped 1.45% in a single day, polyester staple fiber followed with 0.93%, and cotton rose 0.85%, while raw silk bucked the trend with a 0.21% decline, becoming the only losing product that day. This pattern of strong chemical fibers and weak natural protein fibers becomes more telling against year-on-year data—PTA is up 28.87%, acrylonitrile surged 44.12%, while cotton yarn and polyester yarn only gained about 5%, signaling a dramatic redistribution of profits along the supply chain.
Background
This price movement is not isolated. From August 28 to 31, PTA jumped from 6,213.25 to 6,303.50 yuan per ton, polyester staple fiber rose in tandem, while cotton yarn, viscose staple fiber, and spandex remained flat. The imbalance between rising and falling products indicates that capital and orders are concentrating in the upstream chemical fiber sector. Notably, the rise in cotton contrasts sharply with the fall in raw silk—both natural fibers, but cotton benefits from rigid textile demand, while silk suffers from weak downstream consumption.
Year-on-year data is even more revealing: acrylonitrile leads with a 44.12% increase, PTA and polyester filament series (POY, DTY, FDY) generally rose between 21% and 29%, and spandex also recorded a 21.65% gain. In contrast, cotton yarn 21S and 32S only rose 5.89% and 5.63% year-on-year, rayon yarn 5.66%, and polyester yarn 5.90%—these intermediate products clearly failed to fully pass on upstream costs. Raw silk is notably down 9.35% year-on-year, falling to 426,600 yuan per ton from higher levels earlier in the year, showing terminal demand's resistance to high prices.
Industry Impact
The strength of chemical fiber raw materials is essentially a cost-driven repricing. Crude oil price fluctuations transmit directly to PTA and the polyester chain, while the acrylonitrile surge is linked to supply-side maintenance and overseas plant shutdowns. For spinners and weavers, this means rigidly rising raw material costs, but limited ability to raise prices for downstream grey fabrics and garments, squeezing profit margins. The fact that cotton yarn and polyester yarn rose far less than raw materials indicates that intermediate links are absorbing the cost to retain customers.
The decline in raw silk reveals another logic: high-end natural fibers have greater demand elasticity, and when economic expectations weaken, silk consumption suffers first. This reminds the market that not all textile raw materials are in a boom cycle; blindly following the uptrend may misstep. For buyers, the most immediate risk is a short-term pullback in PTA and polyester staple fiber after sharp gains—especially since gains are already large and downstream acceptance is uncertain. For factories, raw material inventory management should be more flexible to avoid stockpiling at highs.