The price monitoring on August 31 sends a clear signal: PTA rose 1.45% in a day, polyester staple fiber followed with 0.93%, and cotton strengthened 0.85%, while raw silk fell 0.21%. More notably, PTA's year-on-year gain reached 28.87%, and acrylonitrile surged 44.12%. Cost pressure from raw materials is transmitting down the chain—this is not a short-term blip but the start of a medium-term trend.
Divergence and Transmission Logic
The current rally shows a clear pattern: chemical fibers are strong, while natural fibers are weak. PTA's 1.45% daily gain seems modest, but combined with a 28.87% year-on-year increase, it means polyester feedstock costs have risen nearly 30% over the past year. Polyester staple fiber followed with 0.93%, up 19.58% year-on-year, while POY, FDY, and DTY remained flat on the day but all showed year-on-year gains above 21%, indicating cost support has fully penetrated all polyester specifications.
Cotton rose 0.85%, up 20.17% year-on-year, creating rigid cost pressure on cotton yarn. However, cotton yarn 21S and 32S remained unchanged on the day, with year-on-year gains of only 5.89% and 5.63%, far below cotton's 20.17%. This scissors gap shows that yarn mills have weaker pricing power than raw material suppliers, squeezing their profit margins from both sides—rising input costs and limited ability to pass through to fabric customers.
Raw silk fell 0.21%, down 9.35% year-on-year, the only declining product in the monitoring. This contrasts sharply with chemical fibers, reflecting an independent supply-demand cycle in the silk sector. For silk fabric buyers, this offers a relatively favorable window for negotiation.
Time Lag and Downstream Absorption
Cost pass-through typically lags. Polyester filament yarns were flat on the day but up over 21% year-on-year, suggesting earlier cost increases have been partially absorbed. Cotton yarn's year-on-year gain is far below cotton's, meaning spinners are compressing their own profits to maintain customer relationships. But this concession cannot last indefinitely. Once cotton prices continue to rise, cotton yarn catch-up is only a matter of time.
For weavers and fabric mills, procurement costs will inevitably rise. The increase in polyester staple fiber will directly push up nonwoven and blended yarn costs, while PTA's strength provides a floor for the entire polyester chain. Viscose staple fiber was flat but up 10.43% year-on-year, and spun rayon yarn rose 5.66%, indicating slow but steady gains in regenerated cellulose fibers.
Spandex is up 21.65% year-on-year, and nylon series range from 14% to 21% higher. These elastic fibers and nylon's price rigidity will directly affect cost structures for sportswear, underwear, and outdoor apparel. For finished goods manufacturers relying on these inputs, cost pressure will surface within the next one to two quarters.
Market Expectations and Procurement Strategy
The current price structure reveals market expectations: strength in PTA and acrylonitrile suggests robust demand for petrochemical derivatives, while cotton's rise may be supported by planting area or weather factors. Raw silk's decline points to an independent supply cycle, with little basis for a sharp rally soon.
For procurement teams, the divergence calls for differentiated purchasing rhythms. For chemical fibers, early locking of long-term contracts is advisable to hedge against potential catch-up gains. For cotton yarn, watch cotton trends and build positions in batches during dips. For silk products, there is no need to rush; use the current buyer's market to negotiate better terms.
For foreign trade companies, the time lag also creates room for pricing strategy adjustments. For orders in hand without locked raw material costs, recalculate quotes with suppliers promptly. For long-term clients, consider establishing a price linkage mechanism that ties contract terms to raw material index fluctuations. Closely monitor weekly PTA and cotton trends to support negotiations with overseas customers.