On the last trading day of August, the textile raw material market showed a rare divergence: PTA jumped 1.45% to 6303.50 yuan/ton, a year-on-year surge of 28.87%; polyester staple fiber and cotton followed with gains of 0.93% and 0.85%, respectively. Meanwhile, downstream cotton yarn and polyester yarn prices remained flat, and raw silk even fell 0.21%. This contrast between soaring raw materials and steady finished products signals mounting pressure on cost transmission along the supply chain.
Raw Material End: PTA's Rally Is Not an Isolated Event
PTA's move is not coincidental. Year-on-year, PTA is nearly 30% higher, acrylonitrile has surged 44.12%, and spandex and polyester filament series (POY, DTY, FDY) are all up over 21%. This indicates that the raw material rally is not a one-day pulse but a multi-month trend. For downstream weaving and garment makers, procurement costs have systematically shifted upward, not just a short-term fluctuation.
Notably, viscose staple fiber is up 10.43% year-on-year, while viscose yarn only rose 5.66%, widening the spread and suggesting upstream pressure has not fully passed through. Similarly, nylon series rose 14%-21%, but nylon yarn prices stayed flat, reflecting a widespread pattern of hot raw materials and cold finished goods across the chemical fiber chain.
Yarn Segment: Flat Prices Mask Profit Squeeze
Cotton yarn 21S and 32S remained unchanged for days, with year-on-year gains of only 5.89% and 5.63%, far below cotton's 20.17% increase. Polyester yarn rose 5.90% year-on-year, a huge gap versus polyester staple fiber's 19.58%. This inversion—where raw materials cost more than finished yarn—means yarn mills are compressing their own margins to absorb costs, as terminal demand offers little room for price hikes.
For buyers, current yarn prices look like a value trap relative to raw materials, but a catch-up rally is a real risk. Historically, cost transmission lags by 4-6 weeks, so the current flatness may be the calm before the storm.
Industry Impact: Cost Transmission and Procurement Rebalancing
The raw material surge is structurally disruptive. Higher petrochemical-based inputs like PTA and acrylonitrile directly raise the cost floor for chemical fiber products, while cotton's rise transmits through cotton yarn to woven and knitted fabrics. For fabric buyers, this is a window to lock in prices, but inventory costs and capital occupation must be weighed.
Another signal is raw silk's decline. A 9.35% year-on-year drop indicates weak silk demand, contrasting with chemical fiber and cotton strength. This suggests buyers should favor chemical fiber and cotton categories with stronger cost support, while silk products may retain bargaining room.