On the last trading day of August, the textile raw material market delivered a clearly divergent report card: PTA rose 1.45% in a single day, polyester staple fiber followed with a 0.93% gain, and cotton moved up 0.85%, while raw silk bucked the trend with a 0.21% decline. Behind these seemingly moderate moves lie starkly different supply-demand dynamics between the chemical fiber chain and the natural fiber segment—and a concentrated test of cost pass-through ability for the second half of the year.
Background
According to data from the Shengyi Shentong price monitor, on August 31, three textile commodities posted gains and only one declined, with the average daily change at 0.18%. PTA closed at 6,303.50 yuan/ton, up 92.25 yuan from August 28, with a year-on-year increase of 28.87%. Polyester staple fiber rose to 7,816.55 yuan/ton (up 19.58% YoY), and cotton reached 18,419.33 yuan/ton (up 20.17% YoY). Raw silk fell to 426,600 yuan/ton, down 9.35% YoY, making it the only decliner of the day.
Notably, acrylonitrile held steady at 11,433.33 yuan/ton but posted the highest year-on-year gain of all monitored items at 44.12%. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S, polyester yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, and various polyester and nylon filament products all remained flat, indicating that the market is in a wait-and-see digestion phase.
Industry Impact
PTA's leadership is not an isolated event. Its 28.87% YoY gain, combined with acrylonitrile's 44.12% increase, points to a common driver: cost pressure from upstream petrochemical raw materials is transmitting down the chain. For polyester filament and staple producers, higher feedstock costs squeeze margins, yet the 0.93% follow-through gain in polyester staple was significantly smaller than PTA's rise, suggesting that midstream pricing power remains constrained by weak downstream orders.
Cotton's 0.85% rise to 18,419 yuan/ton, up 20.17% YoY, aligns with tight supply expectations before the new crop arrives. For cotton spinners, higher raw material costs combined with flat cotton yarn prices mean narrower gross margins per ton spun. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S are up only 5.89% and 5.63% YoY, far below cotton's gain, reflecting limited acceptance of price hikes in downstream gray fabric and apparel segments.
Raw silk's lone decline is more telling. Down 9.35% YoY, it is the only item with a negative annual change, indicating persistent demand weakness in the silk industry chain. This stark contrast with the widespread double-digit gains in chemical fibers suggests that the substitution relationship between natural and synthetic fibers is being redefined at the price level.
From an inventory cycle perspective, the flat prices across most items do not signal strong demand but rather a standoff between cost and orders. Spandex is up 21.65% YoY and nylon POY up 21.37%; these high annual gains mean earlier cost increases have been fully priced in, and if downstream demand disappoints, the risk of a pullback is accumulating.