The benchmark price of polyester staple fiber (PSF) stood at 7,816.55 yuan/ton in early September, up 3.32% from the previous month and 24.7% higher than the year-ago low of 6,267.17 yuan/ton. This level places the market in the mid-to-high range of its 12-month band, with a gap of only 609.47 yuan from the peak of 8,426.02 yuan and a buffer of 1,549.38 yuan above the trough. The rapid upward shift in the price center is reshaping negotiation dynamics across the supply chain.
Market Context
Over the past 12 months, the average PSF price was 7,126.48 yuan/ton, meaning the current price exceeds the mean by about 9.7%. Although the daily gain of 0.93% is not sharp, the sustained small-step climb over several weeks has already pressured spinning mills' raw material costs. The benchmark price, widely tracked by the industry, often leads spot transaction prices and directly influences procurement rhythms in textile clusters such as Keqiao and Shenze.
This rally is not isolated. Upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices have strengthened in tandem, with cost pass-through being the core driver. Meanwhile, downstream yarn mills are operating at over 70% capacity, with some large factories' orders booked through mid-October, reinforcing restocking demand. More critically, mainstream PSF producers maintain inventory levels below 10 days, enhancing sellers' pricing power and supporting firm quotes.
Industry Impact
For weaving enterprises, raw materials typically account for over 70% of costs. Every 100 yuan/ton increase in PSF raises greige fabric costs by about 80 yuan/ton. Since the current price has accumulated a gain of over 1,500 yuan/ton from the yearly low, if finished fabric prices cannot pass through proportionally, small and medium-sized mills' margins will be further squeezed. This explains why some conventional polyester taffeta and pongee fabrics in the Shenze area have seen trial price hikes of 0.05-0.10 yuan/meter.
On the export front, complexities multiply. RMB exchange rate fluctuations combined with raw material inflation make fixed-price contracts more difficult. A trader in Suzhou revealed that September shipment contracts for polyester fabrics were raised by 3% from August, but October orders are still under negotiation, with buyers and sellers divided on price direction. Industry consensus suggests that if crude oil holds current levels, PSF prices are likely to remain firm in the short term, yet the 609.47 yuan gap to the peak also signals correction risk.
Historically, when benchmarks are in the mid-high range with low inventories, prices tend to maintain momentum. However, caution is warranted regarding new capacity slated for Q4 2026—industry public data indicates approximately 800,000 tons of new PSF capacity domestically. If realized on schedule, prices could face pressure by year-end. Therefore, the current phase favors needs-based procurement over stockpiling.