The benchmark price of viscose staple fiber 1.2D settled at RMB 14,400 per ton on September 1, 2026, up 1.41% from the beginning of the month, hitting the highest level in a year. This price not only set an annual record but also triggered an over-increase warning for the second consecutive year. For downstream spinning mills, this signals that raw material cost pressure is evolving from short-term fluctuations to a structural uptrend.
Three Pillars Behind the High Price
Looking at the annual statistics, the average price of viscose staple fiber 1.2D over the past 12 months was RMB 13,409.95 per ton, while the current price is about 7.4% higher than the average. The spread between the lowest value of RMB 12,800 and the highest of RMB 14,400 is RMB 1,600, indicating a narrowing fluctuation range and a steadily rising market center.
The first factor supporting the high price is the cost side. Key raw materials such as dissolving pulp and caustic soda remain firm, coupled with high energy costs, which compresses producers' profit margins and reduces their willingness to sell at low prices. The second factor is the supply side. Some capacity maintenance and environmental production restrictions have kept the industry operating rate at around 70%, leading to tight spot supply and strong price-holding sentiment among mills. The third factor is the demand side. Orders for rayon yarn and blended fabrics were released ahead of the traditional peak season, and buyers actively restocked under the 'buy on rising' psychology, further boosting prices.
Notably, the current price is at a one-year high and has exceeded the warning level for two consecutive years, meaning the market has entered a caution zone. Historical experience suggests that when prices break previous highs without new demand support, the risk of correction rises significantly.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Transmission
The price increase first transmits to major spinning clusters in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Henan. In these regions, small and medium-sized spinning mills are highly sensitive to raw material prices. Some have begun adjusting procurement from bulk stockpiling to on-demand purchasing to avoid high inventory risks. Meanwhile, yarn prices have also followed up, but the increase is significantly smaller than that of raw materials, further squeezing spinning margins.
For downstream fabric manufacturers, viscose staple fiber accounts for a high proportion in blended fabrics, with raw material costs comprising 30-40% of total costs. A RMB 100/ton increase in raw material prices raises fabric costs by approximately RMB 30-40/ton. Since end-order prices have not yet been adjusted upward, fabric makers' profitability is being squeezed from both ends.
From an inventory cycle perspective, current social inventory of viscose staple fiber is at a medium-low level, while downstream yarn inventories have accumulated. This structure of 'tight raw materials, loose finished goods' implies that price transmission is not yet smooth. In the short term, prices may remain high with fluctuations, but upside potential could be limited by downstream acceptance.
Practical Recommendations
Facing the high-running viscose staple fiber market, enterprises in different segments need differentiated strategies.
For Buyers - Establish a price warning mechanism, monitor price percentiles and over-increase signals in public data, and avoid concentrated restocking at the top. - Adopt a combination of 'batch procurement + forward price locking' by signing monthly fixed-quantity contracts with suppliers to reduce one-time purchase risks. - Optimize blended formulas by adjusting the ratio of viscose staple fiber to other fibers while maintaining quality to alleviate cost pressure.
For Mills - Strengthen inventory management by keeping raw material stock at 15-20 days of usage to avoid excessive capital occupation due to price fluctuations. - Improve production efficiency through process optimization to reduce unit consumption and offset the profit erosion caused by raw material price increases. - Establish price linkage mechanisms with downstream customers by setting raw material price adjustment clauses in contracts to transmit cost changes in a timely manner.
Whether the high-price cycle of viscose staple fiber can persist depends on the pace of new capacity additions and the recovery of end-consumer demand. Textile enterprises should remain rational, avoiding both blind chasing of highs and excessive pessimism. Flexible operational strategies are the key to navigating this period.