Since late August, cotton fields in southern Xinjiang have stopped irrigation, accelerating boll opening. In Hotan, Kashgar, Aksu, and Bayingolin, boll opening rates have generally exceeded 50%, prompting some farmers to apply defoliants in early September. This signals that the seed cotton harvest will start more than a week earlier than last year, while northern Xinjiang regions like Bole, Shawan, Jinghe, and Kuytun are expected to follow in mid-to-late September. The accelerated harvest pace is reshaping the supply window for new cotton, directly affecting downstream buyers' stocking plans.
Background
Defoliant application is a critical pre-harvest step that influences machine-picked cotton quality. Southern Xinjiang's early boll opening is due to high temperatures and early senescence in dryland fields, whereas some late-maturing northern fields may need ethephon to promote maturity. This has created a divergence: southern harvest starts a week early, while northern remains stable or slightly ahead. For ginners, this means earlier supply but also a longer buying period and higher capital occupation.
Meanwhile, the Zhengzhou Cotton Futures main contract has reclaimed the 17,000 yuan/ton level, coupled with rising expectations for the 'golden September and silver October' peak season and speculation about Xinjiang's output. Hand-picked seed cotton prices in Kashgar's Bachu and Makit have risen to 8.5-8.70 yuan/kg for grades with 40-42% lint and moisture below 12%. Additionally, cottonseed prices have climbed to around 2.55 yuan/kg, further supporting seed cotton quotes.
Industry Impact
While hand-picked cotton prices are high, machine-picked pre-purchase prices remain moderate at 7.50-7.70 yuan/kg, up 0.10-0.20 yuan/kg from early August, but most ginners stay cautious. This divergence reflects differing expectations about new cotton costs: hand-picked cotton is supported by comforter orders, while machine-picked faces weak downstream demand and financial constraints.
Ginners' caution is justified. Financial institutions have tightened credit for the 2026/27 season, increasing self-financing pressure. The central reserve cotton sales continue to supply the market. Textile mills report new orders below expectations, with short, scattered, and small orders dominating. US-China trade relations remain uncertain, and geopolitical risks are high. These factors lead most ginners to set machine-picked purchase prices at 7.0-7.50 yuan/kg, a clear discount to hand-picked quotes.
For textile mills, an earlier harvest means earlier availability of new cotton, but weak order structures dampen restocking enthusiasm. Futures trading above 17,000 yuan/ton may diverge from spot prices, offering hedging opportunities. Rising cottonseed prices benefit ginners by offsetting seed cotton costs, but whether they cover capital expenses remains uncertain.